Match Info

A-League - Round 24

Date: 12 April 2026, Sunday

Location: AAMI Park (Melbourne)

Referee: King A. (Aus)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	SPOTV 2 Asia
Australia	Paramount+
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Hong-kong	M Plus Live, myTV SUPER
India	FanCode, FanCode, Vision+
Indonesia	SPOTV 2, Vidio
Malaysia	Astro Go
Mongolia	SPOTV 2
New-zealand	SKY Go NZ, Sky Sport 3
Philippines	SPOTV 2
Singapore	SPOTV 2
Thailand	SPOTV 2
United-kingdom	Discovery+ App, Discovery+, HBO Max, TNT Sports 4
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Vietnam	SPOTV 2


	Melbourne City		Wellington Phoenix

	1	X	2
	1.76	3.9	4.1	Watch
	1.82	3.7	3.95	Watch
	1.83	4	4.18
	1.79	4.1	4.1	Watch
	1.75	3.6	4
	1.81	3.99	4.42	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.79 ↑ (1.59)	3.88 ↑ (3.85)	4.13 ↓ (5.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Melbourne City
52.7%

Draw
24.4%

Wellington Phoenix
22.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.1%

24%

17.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.2%

22.4%

19.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Melbourne City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Melbourne City's form might have worsened.

Wellington Phoenix has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Melbourne City than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Wellington Phoenix than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
41.7%	16.7%	41.7%

Melbourne City - Wellington Phoenix Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Melbourne City will win (votes: 5 - 41.7%). Wellington will win (votes: 5 - 41.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Melbourne City: 13.8% – 69.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Beach P. (G) 13. Atkinson N. 22. Ferreyra G. 26. Souprayen S. 16. Behich A. (C) 30. Kuen A. 19. Schreiber Z. 11. Rashani E. 28. Younis M. 15. Nabbout A. 14. Arzani D.	1. Oluwayemi J. (G) 6. Payne T. 28. Tuiloma B. 15. Hughes I. 12. Edwards D. 20. Najjarine R. 14. Rufer A. (C) 8. Retre P. 25. Nagasawa K. 7. Eze I. 3. Piper C.
Substitutes
17. Caputo M. 2. Delbridge H. 7. Leckie M. 35. Memeti M. 40. Nieuwenhuizen J. (G) 47. Rahmani K. 36. Shillington H.	11. Armiento C. 29. Brooke-Smith L. 4. James M. 16. Kartum S. 30. Kelly-Heald A. (G) 18. Kelly-Heald L. 27. Sheridan M.
Coaches
Vidmar A.	Greenacre C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
27', 1 - 0, Behich A. ⚽, Atkinson N. (A),
38', Arzani D. 🟨,
39', Nagasawa K. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Payne T. ↓, Sheridan M. ↑,
54', Ferreyra G. 🟨,
62', Nagasawa K. ↓, Kartum S. ↑,
73', Rashani E. ↓, Rahmani K. ↑,
73', Nabbout A. ↓, Caputo M. ↑,
73', Najjarine R. ↓, Brooke-Smith L. ↑,
76', 2 - 0, Younis M. ⚽, Kuen A. (A),
77', Arzani D. ↓, Memeti M. ↑,
80', Retre P. ↓, Kelly-Heald L. ↑,
80', Edwards D. ↓, Armiento C. ↑,
81', Schreiber Z. 🟨,
83', Schreiber Z. ↓, Leckie M. ↑,
90+1', Souprayen S. 🟨,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ A~League (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 8).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Melbourne City won 3.

Right now, both teams are showing solid form.

Wellington may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Melbourne City is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Melbourne City: Kanamori T. (Knee Injury) Leckie M. (Hamstring Injury) Lopane A. (Muscle Injury) Teague R. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Wellington: Singh S. (Inactive) Walker N. (Inactive)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Melbourne City won 11 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 39:22. (average 2:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Melbourne City won 7 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 22:11. (average 2:1).

Outrights of Australian A-League for now

Melbourne City: 14.24% Wellington Phoenix: 4.32%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Wellington Phoenix	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
9	Melbourne City	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Melbourne City
Australian A-League
07.04.26	Melbourne City - Central Coast Mariners	2:1 ✺
04.04.26	Melbourne City - Western Sydney Wanderers	3:0 ✺
22.03.26	Perth Glory - Melbourne City	1:1 ✺
17.03.26	Sydney - Melbourne City	0:1 ✺
AFC Champions League
10.03.26	Buriram United - Melbourne City	1:0 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 WWTWL
- Wellington Phoenix
Australian A-League
05.04.26	Melbourne Victory - Wellington Phoenix	0:1 ✺
21.03.26	Brisbane Roar - Wellington Phoenix	1:2 ✺
13.03.26	Wellington Phoenix - Perth Glory	2:0 ✺
06.03.26	Adelaide United - Wellington Phoenix	1:1 ✺
28.02.26	Wellington Phoenix - Sydney	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 24.8 WWWTL

Latest Head to Head

Australian A-League
30.01.26	Wellington Phoenix - Melbourne City	2:2
28.02.25	Wellington Phoenix - Melbourne City	0:1
03.01.25	Melbourne City - Wellington Phoenix	2:0
09.03.24	Melbourne City - Wellington Phoenix	1:0
24.11.23	Wellington Phoenix - Melbourne City	1:0
Australian Cup
27.08.23	Melbourne City - Wellington Phoenix	3:0
Australian A-League
10.04.23	Melbourne City - Wellington Phoenix	4:1

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