Match Info

A-League - Round 12

Date: 11 January 2026, Sunday

Location: AAMI Park (Melbourne)

Referee: Reibelt C. (Aus)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Paramount+
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Hong-kong	M Plus Live, myTV SUPER
New-zealand	Sky Sport 4
United-kingdom	Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 1, TNT Sports 2
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+


	Melbourne City		Newcastle Jets

	1	X	2
	1.68	4.5	4.1	Watch
	1.7	4.25	3.95	Watch
	1.72	4.41	4.1	Watch
	1.67	4	4
	1.75	4.29	4.34	Watch
	1.68	4.33	4.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.7 ↓ (1.74)	4.3 ↑ (3.88)	4.12 ↑ (3.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Melbourne City
55.3%

Draw
21.9%

Newcastle Jets
22.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53%

23.7%

23.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.7%

23.1%

23.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Melbourne City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

Newcastle Jets has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Melbourne City than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Newcastle Jets than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
44.4%	22.2%	33.3%

Melbourne City - Newcastle Jets Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Melbourne City will win (votes: 4 - 44.4%). Newcastle will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Melbourne City: 11.9% – 76.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Melbourne City (votes: 1 - 20%). Newcastle (votes: 2 - 40%). Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS, 1st Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Beach P. (G) 13. Atkinson N. 22. Ferreyra G. 26. Souprayen S. 16. Behich A. 39. Durakovic E. 27. Trewin K. 19. Schreiber Z. 30. Kuen A. 15. Nabbout A. 35. Memeti M.	1. Delianov J. (G) 22. Bertolissio J. 5. Shaughnessy J. 33. Natta M. 23. Wilmering D. 17. Grozos K. 13. Taylor C. 14. Burgess M. 28. Dobson W. 7. Adams E. 9. Rose L.
Substitutes
4. Bonetig L. 17. Caputo M. 21. Lopane A. 20. Mazzeo B. 40. Nieuwenhuizen J. (G) 36. Shillington H. 41. Wong L.	8. Bayliss L. 43. Bertoncello X. 11. Gibson B. 18. Mizunuma K. 20. Nassiep A. (G) 24. Nunes A. 41. Scicluna L.
Coaches
Vidmar A.	Milligan M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
47', Wilmering D. 🟨,
57', Adams E. ↓, Mizunuma K. ↑,
58', Grozos K. ↓, Bayliss L. ↑,
59', Bertolissio J. 🟨,
61', Schreiber Z. ↓, Lopane A. ↑,
61', Kuen A. ↓, Caputo M. ↑,
67', 0 - 1, Rose L. ⚽,
68', Taylor C. ↓, Bertoncello X. ↑,
68', Rose L. ↓, Gibson B. ↑,
73', Durakovic E. ↓, Wong L. ↑,
82', Memeti M. ↓, Mazzeo B. ↑,
82', Souprayen S. ↓, Bonetig L. ↑,
85', Dobson W. ↓, Nunes A. ↑,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ A~League (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 7).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Melbourne City won 3.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Newcastle may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Melbourne City has had a series of home games.

In this match, Melbourne City is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Melbourne City: Kanamori T. (Groin Injury) Leckie M. (Hamstring Injury) Mazzeo B. (Muscle Injury) Ochsenham D. (Inactive)

There will not play in Newcastle: Aquilina T. (Inactive) Cooper M. (Red Card) Fryer O. (Knee Injury) James N. (Knee Injury) Nassiep A. (Inactive) Nunes A. (Inactive) Scicluna L. (Inactive)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Melbourne City won 12 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 33:17. (average 1.7:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Melbourne City won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 16:6. (average 1.6:0.6).

Outrights of Australian A-League for now

Melbourne City: 14.24% Newcastle Jets: 12.08%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Newcastle Jets	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
9	Melbourne City	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Melbourne City
Australian A-League
06.01.26	Melbourne City - Brisbane Roar	1:0 ✺
03.01.26	Melbourne City - Sydney	0:0 ✺
28.12.25	Melbourne City - Perth Glory	1:3 ✺
23.12.25	Melbourne City - Macarthur FC	1:1 ✺
20.12.25	Melbourne City - Melbourne Victory	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 WTLTL
- Newcastle Jets
Australian A-League
31.12.25	Auckland FC - Newcastle Jets	1:3 ✺
26.12.25	Newcastle Jets - Macarthur FC	4:5 ✺
20.12.25	Newcastle Jets - Sydney	2:0 ✺
13.12.25	Wellington Phoenix - Newcastle Jets	1:3 ✺
06.12.25	Newcastle Jets - Melbourne City	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.6 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Australian A-League
06.12.25	Newcastle Jets - Melbourne City	0:1
12.03.25	Melbourne City - Newcastle Jets	0:1
19.10.24	Newcastle Jets - Melbourne City	0:1
30.03.24	Melbourne City - Newcastle Jets	0:0
03.12.23	Newcastle Jets - Melbourne City	0:2
02.04.23	Melbourne City - Newcastle Jets	1:1
12.11.22	Newcastle Jets - Melbourne City	1:2

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