Match Info

A-League - Round 20

Date: 6 January 2026, Tuesday

Location: AAMI Park (Melbourne)

Referee: Danaskos T. (Aus)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Paramount+
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Hong-kong	M Plus Live, myTV SUPER
Macao	Macau Cable TV 34 Football
New-zealand	Sky Sport 5
United-kingdom	Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 1
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+


	Melbourne City		Brisbane Roar

	1	X	2
	1.68	3.75	4.75	Watch
	1.8	3.5	4.2
	1.72	3.55	4.7	Watch
	1.76	3.63	4.78	Watch
	1.75	3.5	4.4
	1.77	3.84	4.87	Watch
	1.7	3.6	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.74 ↓ (1.78)	3.62 ↑ (3.4)	4.67 ↑ (4.33)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Melbourne City
54%

Draw
25.9%

Brisbane Roar
20.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.7%

27.1%

21.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.1%

28.9%

19.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Melbourne City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

Brisbane Roar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Melbourne City than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Brisbane Roar than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	20%	20%

Melbourne City - Brisbane Roar Predictions

Users Predictions: 30 users predict this event. Melbourne City will win (votes: 18 - 60%). Brisbane will win (votes: 6 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Melbourne City: 42.5% – 77.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Melbourne City (votes: 6 - 54.5%). Brisbane (votes: 2 - 18.2%). Tie (votes: 3 - 27.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

DC - Brisbane (1.92) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

BTTS, 1st Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - Brisbane (4.18) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 15 Selected Experts predict this event. Melbourne City (votes: 6 - 40%). Brisbane (votes: 6 - 40%). Tie (votes: 3 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Beach P. (G) 13. Atkinson N. 22. Ferreyra G. 4. Bonetig L. 16. Behich A. (C) 30. Kuen A. 19. Schreiber Z. 27. Trewin K. 39. Durakovic E. 35. Memeti M. 17. Caputo M.	1. Bouzanis D. (G) 2. Salas Y. 6. Ludwik A. 3. Valkanis D. 23. McGarry J. 44. Lauton J. 8. Klein S. 26. O'Shea J. 10. Vrakas G. 19. Ruhs M. 9. Long Ch.
Substitutes
38. Baker B. 44. Kutleshi B. 21. Lopane A. 15. Nabbout A. 40. Nieuwenhuizen J. (G) 36. Shillington H. 41. Wong L.	16. Dench M. 35. Evagorou-Alao M. 11. Freke M. (G) 31. Maieroni N. 33. O'Reilly J. 41. Shaw E. 17. Vidic J.
Coaches
Vidmar A.	Valkanis M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
11', 1 - 0, Caputo M. ⚽, Durakovic E. (A),
29', Behich A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Lauton J. ↓, Dench M. ↑,
68', Caputo M. ↓, Nabbout A. ↑,
68', Long Ch. ↓, Vidic J. ↑,
69', O'Shea J. ↓, Maieroni N. ↑,
70', Maieroni N. 🟨,
76', Ruhs M. ↓, Evagorou-Alao M. ↑,
76', Vrakas G. ↓, Shaw E. ↑,
78', Durakovic E. ↓, Wong L. ↑,
79', Kuen A. ↓, Lopane A. ↑,
84', Evagorou-Alao M. 🟨,
88', Atkinson N. 🟨,
90', Schreiber Z. ↓, Kutleshi B. ↑,
90+1', Klein S. 🟨,
90+1', Memeti M. 🟨,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 8 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ A~League (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Melbourne City won 3.

Recent form of Melbourne City has been disappointing (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Brisbane's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Melbourne City may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Melbourne City has had a series of home games.

Recently, Brisbane has had a series of away games.

In this match, Melbourne City is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Melbourne City: Leckie M. (Hamstring Injury) Lopane A. (Ankle Injury) Mazzeo B. (Muscle Injury) Ochsenham D. (Inactive) Wong L. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Brisbane: Amanatidis N. (Muscle Injury) Burke-Gilroy A. (Foot Injury) Ferkranus M. (Muscle Injury) Stajic M. (Hamstring Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Melbourne City won 13 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 40:26. (average 2:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Melbourne City won 9 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 25:8. (average 2.8:0.9).

Last Results with these Odds

Melbourne City - the odds 1.78 are the expected chance of winning is 51.69%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Melbourne City
Australian A-League
03.01.26	Melbourne City - Sydney	0:0 ✺
28.12.25	Melbourne City - Perth Glory	1:3 ✺
23.12.25	Melbourne City - Macarthur FC	1:1 ✺
20.12.25	Melbourne City - Melbourne Victory	0:1 ✺
AFC Champions League
10.12.25	FC Seoul - Melbourne City	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 TLTLT
- Brisbane Roar
Australian A-League
03.01.26	Brisbane Roar - Wellington Phoenix	0:3 ✺
31.12.25	Central Coast Mariners - Brisbane Roar	1:2 ✺
19.12.25	Macarthur FC - Brisbane Roar	2:1 ✺
13.12.25	Western Sydney Wanderers - Brisbane Roar	0:0 ✺
07.12.25	Adelaide United - Brisbane Roar	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.6 LWLTW

Latest Head to Head

Australian A-League
31.10.25	Brisbane Roar - Melbourne City	0:0
11.04.25	Melbourne City - Brisbane Roar	3:2
11.01.25	Melbourne City - Brisbane Roar	1:0
06.12.24	Brisbane Roar - Melbourne City	1:4
10.02.24	Brisbane Roar - Melbourne City	5:1
28.12.23	Melbourne City - Brisbane Roar	8:1
11.03.23	Melbourne City - Brisbane Roar	2:1

Melbourne City - Brisbane Roar: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide