Match Info

A-League Women - Round 12

Date: 11 January 2026, Sunday

Referee: Williams C. (Aus)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Channel 10, Paramount+
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Hong-kong	HOY TV
New-zealand	Sky Sport 5
United-kingdom	Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 2
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+


	Melbourne Victory		Brisbane Roar

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.58	3.9	4.33
	1.6	3.95	4.25
	1.65	4.31	4.44	Watch
	1.6	3.8	4.2
	1.61	3.98	4.37	Watch
	1.58	4.2	4.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.6 ↑ (1.53)	4.02 ↑ (3.8)	4.32 ↓ (4.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Melbourne Victory
56.5%

Draw
22.5%

Brisbane Roar
21%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.1%

23%

19.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.9%

21.6%

18.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Melbourne Victory has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

Brisbane Roar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Melbourne Victory than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Brisbane Roar than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

Melbourne Victory - Brisbane Roar Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Newbon C. (G) 24. Pickett L. 3. Bunge C. 18. Morrison K. (C) 66. Jancevski A. 6. Ray T. 9. Furphy H. 10. Pollicina R. 23. Lowe R. 5. Sakalis S. 16. White K.	1. Lincoln C. (G) 27. Miller A. 7. Hayashi M. (C) 2. Varley L. 11. Seidl M. 22. Piazza A. 32. Woods A. 5. Medwin A. 3. Brown D. 24. Freier S. 17. Jansen B.
Substitutes
4. Blissett C. 11. Flannery N. 7. O'Grady E. 8. Saveska S. 28. Techera S. 30. Woodward P. (G)	6. Cuthbert R. 12. Franco T. (G) 18. Kinsella A. 15. Meyers K. 4. Stephenson K. 8. Studer J.
Coaches
Hopkins J.	Smith A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
53', Morrison K. 🟨,
56', 0 - 1, Brown D. ⚽, Seidl M. (A),
69', Piazza A. ↓, Studer J. ↑,
71', Furphy H. ↓, Flannery N. ↑,
71', Lowe R. ↓, Saveska S. ↑,
77', Medwin A. ↓, Stephenson K. ↑,
77', Brown D. ↓, Meyers K. ↑,
82', Sakalis S. ↓, O'Grady E. ↑,
87', Pickett L. ↓, Techera S. ↑,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ A~League Women (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 8).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Melbourne Victory won 2.

Melbourne Victory has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Brisbane Roar is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Melbourne Victory may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Melbourne Victory is the team to beat.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Melbourne Victory won 7 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 34:39. (average 1.7:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Melbourne Victory won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 8:8. (average 1.1:1.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Melbourne Victory Women
Australian A-League Women
27.12.25	Central Coast Mariners - Melbourne Victory	3:3 ✺
23.12.25	Melbourne City - Melbourne Victory	2:1 ✺
19.12.25	Newcastle Jets - Melbourne Victory	1:3 ✺
13.12.25	Melbourne Victory - Adelaide United	1:0 ✺
05.12.25	Melbourne Victory - Canberra United	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 TLWWL
- Brisbane Roar Women
Australian A-League Women
03.01.26	Brisbane Roar - Wellington Phoenix	2:2 ✺
31.12.25	Central Coast Mariners - Brisbane Roar	3:2 ✺
12.12.25	Newcastle Jets - Brisbane Roar	3:0 ✺
07.12.25	Adelaide United - Brisbane Roar	1:3 ✺
16.11.25	Brisbane Roar - Western Sydney Wanderers	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 TLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Australian A-League Women
01.11.25	Brisbane Roar - Melbourne Victory	3:2
19.04.25	Melbourne Victory - Brisbane Roar	2:0
08.01.25	Brisbane Roar - Melbourne Victory	2:0
03.02.24	Brisbane Roar - Melbourne Victory	1:2
15.10.23	Melbourne Victory - Brisbane Roar	1:2
26.03.23	Melbourne Victory - Brisbane Roar	1:1
10.02.23	Brisbane Roar - Melbourne Victory	1:1

Melbourne Victory - Brisbane Roar: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide