Match Info

A-League Women - Round 14

Date: 25 January 2026, Sunday

Location: The Home of the Matildas (Melbourne)

Referee: Quartermain J. (Aus)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Channel 10, Paramount+
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Hong-kong	HOY TV
New-zealand	Sky Sport Select
United-kingdom	Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 9
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+


	Melbourne Victory		Sydney FC

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.46	4.1	5.25
	1.58	3.7	4.65	Watch
	1.64	4.05	5.07
	1.6	4.26	4.92	Watch
	1.57	3.6	4.6
	1.61	3.83	5.32	Watch
	1.58	3.8	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.58 ↑ (1.36)	3.91 ↓ (4.63)	4.97 ↓ (6.57)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Melbourne Victory
58.1%

Draw
23.5%

Sydney FC
18.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

66.6%

19.6%

13.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.4%

13.9%

19.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Melbourne Victory has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Melbourne Victory's form might have worsened.

Sydney FC has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Melbourne Victory than the current prediction. (-10.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Melbourne Victory that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sydney FC than the current prediction. (+1%)

Melbourne Victory - Sydney FC Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Melbourne Victory (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Newbon C. (G) 27. Curtis R. 3. Bunge C. 18. Morrison K. (C) 5. Sakalis S. 8. Saveska S. 6. Ray T. 23. Lowe R. 66. Jancevski A. 9. Furphy H. 16. White K.	1. Hinz H. (G) 4. Tumeth T. 2. Ayson M. 16. Pearson W. 5. Fenton K. 7. Cassar A. 21. Hunter S. (C) 8. Lowry H. 14. Lemon A. 19. Halmarick S. 13. Tanner R.
Substitutes
4. Blissett C. 81. Maher G. 7. O'Grady E. 28. Techera S. 30. Woodward P. (G) 41. Young J.	17. Corbett C. 18. Luchtmeijer A. 30. Robertson T. (G) 23. Sullivan R. 24. Tallon-Henniker C. 9. Ulkekul J.
Coaches
Hopkins J.	Juric A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)
56', Halmarick S. ↓, Ulkekul J. ↑,
68', Pearson W. 🟨,
69', Cassar A. ↓, Corbett C. ↑,
73', Furphy H. ↓, O'Grady E. ↑,
79', Saveska S. 🟨,
79', Lemon A. ↓, Tallon-Henniker C. ↑,
81', Curtis R. ↓, Maher G. ↑,
81', Saveska S. ↓, Techera S. ↑,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ A~League Women (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 10).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Melbourne Victory won 3.

Melbourne Victory is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Sydney has been on a rough run of results (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Melbourne Victory may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Melbourne Victory has had a series of away games.

In this match, Melbourne Victory is considered a favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Melbourne Victory won 7 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 28:32. (average 1.4:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Melbourne Victory won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 16:19. (average 1.6:1.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Melbourne Victory Women
Australian A-League Women
17.01.26	Adelaide United - Melbourne Victory	2:1 ✺
11.01.26	Melbourne Victory - Brisbane Roar	0:1 ✺
27.12.25	Central Coast Mariners - Melbourne Victory	3:3 ✺
23.12.25	Melbourne City - Melbourne Victory	2:1 ✺
19.12.25	Newcastle Jets - Melbourne Victory	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.6 LLTLW
- Sydney FC Women
Australian A-League Women
13.01.26	Sydney FC - Newcastle Jets	1:2 ✺
09.01.26	Sydney FC - Adelaide United	0:0 ✺
04.01.26	Melbourne City - Sydney FC	1:0 ✺
19.12.25	Wellington Phoenix - Sydney FC	7:0 ✺
10.12.25	Canberra United - Sydney FC	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LTLLL

Latest Head to Head

Australian A-League Women
24.01.25	Melbourne Victory - Sydney FC	2:0
28.12.24	Sydney FC - Melbourne Victory	0:1
31.03.24	Sydney FC - Melbourne Victory	0:4
26.01.24	Melbourne Victory - Sydney FC	1:1
22.04.23	Sydney FC - Melbourne Victory	1:0
26.01.23	Melbourne Victory - Sydney FC	3:6
25.11.22	Sydney FC - Melbourne Victory	2:0

Melbourne Victory - Sydney FC: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide