Match Info

A-League Women - Round 14

Date: 24 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Sky Stadium (Wellington)

Referee: Keighley A-M. (Nzl)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Channel 10, Paramount+
Hong-kong	HOY TV
New-zealand	Sky Sport 4
United-kingdom	Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 10, TNT Sports 1, TNT Sports 2
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+


	Wellington Phoenix		Adelaide United

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.85	3.6	3.4
	1.9	3.99	3.72
	1.91	3.93	3.48	Watch
	1.83	3.5	3.4
	1.87	3.82	3.67	Watch
	1.8	3.75	3.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.86 ↑ (1.79)	3.77 ↓ (3.92)	3.55 ↓ (3.87)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Wellington Phoenix
49.5%

Draw
24.5%

Adelaide United
26%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.1%

23.8%

24.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.2%

23.3%

23.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Wellington Phoenix has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

Adelaide United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Wellington Phoenix than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Adelaide United than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

Wellington Phoenix - Adelaide United Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Wellington (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Wellington (1.43) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Wellington (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Esson V. (G) 5. Walker E. 4. Barry M. (C) 16. Van der Meer M. 21. Wall L. 23. Nunn B. 32. Pijnenburg E. 7. Jale G. 24. Vlok P. 14. Leon L. 31. Woods M.	30. Melegh I. (G) 17. Tolland Z. 3. McNamara M. 13. Tonkin E. (C) 2. Hodgson E. 6. Taranto M. 22. Healy E. 5. Morgan S. 15. Taranto A. 23. Worts F. 10. Dawber C.
Substitutes
30. Anthony M. 28. Bartlett G. 27. Benson Z. 15. Brazendale D. 11. Elliott M. 22. Feinberg-Danieli A. (G)	8. Condon E. 11. Hodgson I. 21. Jenkins C. (G) 7. Murray E. 12. Rossi C. 9. Zois P.
Coaches
Priestman B.	Tsiounis T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
1', Van der Meer M. 🟨,
15', 1 - 0, Woods M. ⚽, Leon L. (A),
18', 2 - 0, Nunn B. ⚽, Woods M. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
55', Pijnenburg E. ↓, Brazendale D. ↑,
55', Wall L. ↓, Elliott M. ↑,
58', Taranto A. ↓, Condon E. ↑,
58', Morgan S. ↓, Zois P. ↑,
58', Worts F. ↓, Rossi C. ↑,
62', Leon L. ↓, Benson Z. ↑,
62', Dawber C. ↓, Hodgson I. ↑,
72', Healy E. ↓, Murray E. ↑,
78', Woods M. ↓, Anthony M. ↑,
86', 3 - 0, Nunn B. ⚽, Elliott M. (A),
87', 3 - 1, Hodgson I. ⚽,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 9 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ A~League Women (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Wellington won 2.

Wellington is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Adelaide United is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Wellington may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Wellington might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Wellington won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 12:14. (average 1.3:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Wellington won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 6:8. (average 1.5:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Wellington Phoenix Women
Australian A-League Women
17.01.26	Canberra United - Wellington Phoenix	0:2 ✺
09.01.26	Wellington Phoenix - Melbourne City	1:2 ✺
03.01.26	Brisbane Roar - Wellington Phoenix	2:2 ✺
30.12.25	Western Sydney Wanderers - Wellington Phoenix	0:3 ✺
19.12.25	Wellington Phoenix - Sydney FC	7:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.6 WLTWW
- Adelaide United Women
Australian A-League Women
21.01.26	Newcastle Jets - Adelaide United	1:2 ✺
17.01.26	Adelaide United - Melbourne Victory	2:1 ✺
09.01.26	Sydney FC - Adelaide United	0:0 ✺
04.01.26	Adelaide United - Central Coast Mariners	1:0 ✺
27.12.25	Adelaide United - Western Sydney Wanderers	5:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.6 WWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Australian A-League Women
01.03.25	Wellington Phoenix - Adelaide United	1:3
12.01.25	Adelaide United - Wellington Phoenix	2:1
22.11.24	Adelaide United - Wellington Phoenix	0:1
20.03.24	Wellington Phoenix - Adelaide United	4:0
16.12.23	Adelaide United - Wellington Phoenix	2:1
28.03.23	Adelaide United - Wellington Phoenix	1:3
16.12.22	Wellington Phoenix - Adelaide United	0:1

Wellington Phoenix - Adelaide United: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide