Match Info

USA: USL CHAMPIONSHIP

Date: 30 September 2023, Saturday

Location: AutoZone Park (Memphis)

Referee: Calume A. (Usa)


	Memphis 901		Birmingham Legion

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.68	3.8	3.8
	1.7	4	4.2
	1.71	4.16	4.28
	1.66	3.92	4.1	Watch
	1.71	3.95	3.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.69 ↓ (2.02)	3.97 ↑ (3.4)	4.07 ↑ (3.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 5.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Memphis 901
54.3%

Draw
23.2%

Birmingham Legion
22.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.9%

26.7%

28.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46%

26.1%

27.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Memphis 901 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Memphis 901's performance.

Birmingham Legion has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Birmingham Legion might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Memphis 901 than the current prediction. (-8.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Memphis 901 that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Birmingham Legion than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Birmingham Legion could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Memphis 901 - Birmingham Legion Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Romig A. (G) 27. Peters J. 37. McFadden A. 5. Careaga S. 14. Ward A. 6. Molloy A. 23. Paul L. (C) 8. Turci L. 18. Kelly J. 9. Nascimento L. 10. Da Costa R.	18. Spangenberg T. (G) 13. Rufe J. 21. Crognale A. 3. Kavita P. (C) 33. Mensah M. 5. Lopez M. 10. Kassim P. 9. Agudelo J. 19. Martinez E. 28. Preston T. E. 11. Brett N.
Substitutes
19. Buckmaster R. 24. Dally R. 4. Hyndman E. 11. Kissiedou L. 7. Lapa B. 20. Pickering N.	16. Alves G. A. 23. Dupont G. 96. Freeman T. 7. Nwegbo D. 15. Pasher T. 4. Smith C. 30. Torman S. (G)
Coaches
Glass S.	Soehn T.

Preview

Memphis is Qualified for USL Championship (Play Offs Quarter~finals)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Memphis won 1.

Memphis is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Birmingham is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

In this match Memphis is a favorite.

Last 8 head-to-head matches Memphis won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 8-13.

Including matches at home between the teams Memphis won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 6-7.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Memphis 901
USL Championship
23.09.23	Tampa Bay Rowdies - Memphis 901	2:4 ✺
20.09.23	Birmingham Legion - Memphis 901	1:1 ✺
16.09.23	Memphis 901 - Hartford Athletic	4:2 ✺
09.09.23	Memphis 901 - Monterey Bay	0:1 ✺
06.09.23	Memphis 901 - Tampa Bay Rowdies	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.6 WTWLW
- Birmingham Legion
USL Championship
24.09.23	Birmingham Legion - Miami	0:2 ✺
20.09.23	Birmingham Legion - Memphis 901	1:1 ✺
17.09.23	Rio Grande Valley - Birmingham Legion	1:0 ✺
10.09.23	Birmingham Legion - New Mexico United	1:0 ✺
03.09.23	San Diego Loyal - Birmingham Legion	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.9 LTLWL

Latest Head to Head

USL Championship
20.09.23	Birmingham Legion - Memphis 901	1:1
US Open Cup
10.05.23	Birmingham Legion - Memphis 901	3:0
USL Championship
20.08.22	Memphis 901 - Birmingham Legion	2:4
08.06.22	Birmingham Legion - Memphis 901	1:0
04.09.21	Memphis 901 - Birmingham Legion	3:2
14.08.21	Memphis 901 - Birmingham Legion	1:1
10.07.21	Birmingham Legion - Memphis 901	0:1

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