Match Info

USL Championship

Date: 16 September 2026, Wednesday

Location: Protective Stadium (Birmingham, AL)

Referee: Albuquerque R. (Usa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Canada	fubo Sports Network
Usa	CBS Sports Golazo, Paramount+, SportsEngine Play


	Birmingham Legion		New Mexico United

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.20	3.50	2.65
	2.28	3.35	2.60
	2.43	3.75	2.81
	2.19	3.59	2.98	Watch
	2.35	3.60	2.75
	2.25	3.50	2.73	Watch
	2.23	3.50	2.70
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.28 ↑ (1.97)	3.54 ↑ (3.49)	2.75 ↓ (3.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Birmingham Legion
40.5%

Draw
26%

New Mexico United
33.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.8%

26.4%

26.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.8%

26.4%

26.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Birmingham Legion has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Birmingham Legion's form might have worsened.

New Mexico United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting New Mexico United's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Birmingham Legion than the current prediction. (+6.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Birmingham Legion, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for New Mexico United than the current prediction. (-6.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for New Mexico United, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	16.7%	50%

Birmingham Legion - New Mexico United Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Birmingham will win (votes: 2 - 40%). New Mexico will win (votes: 2 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Birmingham (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - New Mexico (1.45) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Birmingham (1.60) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Birmingham (votes: 2 - 66.7%). New Mexico (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Koleilat J. (G) 21. Tregarthen S. 27. Washington B. 77. Brown N. 11. McCartney D. (C) 18. Antwi S. 8. Cole K. 16. Vassell P. 10. Shashoua S. 19. Diarbian G. 9. Damus R.	13. Shakes K. (G) 28. Wilkerson C. 24. Blackett T. 2. Hamalainen N. 3. Gloster C. 15. Jabang O. 19. Bailey Z. 11. Nava C. 21. Noel V. 31. Melto Quiah J. 10. Hurst G. (C)
Substitutes
26. Daley A. 3. Kavita P. 6. McIllhatton S. 12. McMullen T. (G) 81. Ngoma S. 7. Saucedo S. 17. Williams R.	29. Archimede L. 56. Arozarena R. (G) 5. Harris D. 27. Howell M. 4. Keller K. 7. Reid-Stephen N. 6. Zelalem G.
Coaches
Heaps J.	Sanchez D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
11', 1 - 0, Williams R. ⚽, McCartney D. (A),
16', 1 - 1, Bailey Z. ⚽, Reid-Stephen N. (A),
19', 1 - 2, Reid-Stephen N. ⚽, Gloster C. (A),
19', Heaps J. 🟨,
39', Howell M. 🟨,
43', Howell M. ↓, LaCava J. ↑,
2nd Half (3 - 2)
57', Cole K. ↓, Shashoua S. ↑,
57', McCartney D. ↓, Brown N. ↑,
59', Diop H. 🟨,
64', 1 - 3, Hurst G. ⚽,
66', Vassell P. ↓, Damus R. ↑,
66', 1 - 4, Melto Quiah J. ⚽, Hurst G. (A),
69', Williams R. 🟨,
74', Gloster C. ↓, Blackett T. ↑,
74', Reid-Stephen N. ↓, Nava C. ↑,
74', Jabang O. ↓, Zelalem G. ↑,
74', Williams R. ↓, Ngoma S. ↑,
74', Pasher T. ↓, McIllhatton S. ↑,
77', 2 - 4, Damus R. ⚽,
83', Archimede L. ↓, Wilkerson C. ↑,
87', 3 - 4, Diarbian G. ⚽, Ngoma S. (A),
90+7', Antwi S. 🟨,
90+8', Nava C. 🟨,
90+9', 4 - 4, Damus R. ⚽,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 10 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).

In recent matches, Birmingham has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

New Mexico is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Birmingham may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Birmingham will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Birmingham won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:1. (average 1.3:0.3).

Including home match between the teams, Birmingham won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Birmingham Legion
USL Championship
12.09.26	Birmingham Legion - Charleston Battery	2:2 ✺
05.09.26	Indy Eleven - Birmingham Legion	2:2 ✺
29.08.26	Hartford Athletic - Birmingham Legion	3:2 ✺
22.08.26	Birmingham Legion - Sporting Jacksonville	2:3 ✺
15.08.26	Colorado Springs Switchbacks - Birmingham Legion	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 TTLLL
- New Mexico United
USL Championship
11.09.26	New Mexico United - Indy Eleven	2:2 ✺
05.09.26	Las Vegas Lights - New Mexico United	1:2 ✺
29.08.26	New Mexico United - San Antonio	1:2 ✺
26.08.26	New Mexico United - Lexington	2:1 ✺
22.08.26	Loudoun United - New Mexico United	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 TWLWT

Latest Head to Head

USL Championship
20.07.24	New Mexico United - Birmingham Legion	1:1
10.09.23	Birmingham Legion - New Mexico United	1:0
25.06.22	New Mexico United - Birmingham Legion	0:2

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