Match Info

Primera C - Round 22

Date: 31 July 2026, Friday

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	LPF Play


	Mercedes		Estrella del Sur

	1	X	2
	2.68	2.62	2.82
	2.77	2.56	2.84
	2.79	2.58	2.88	Watch
	2.7	2.45	2.8
	2.72	2.8	2.9
	2.65	2.6	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.72 ↓ (3.35)	2.6 ↓ (2.95)	2.84 ↑ (2.08)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.50

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mercedes
33.3%

Draw
34.8%

Estrella del Sur
31.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.7%

30.3%

43%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.8%

30.2%

42.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mercedes has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Mercedes's performance.

Estrella del Sur has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Estrella del Sur might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mercedes than the current prediction. (-6.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Mercedes that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Estrella del Sur than the current prediction. (+10.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Estrella del Sur could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Mercedes - Estrella del Sur Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
47', 1 - 0, Ruiz F. C. ⚽,
84', 1 - 1, David G. ⚽,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera C (Promotion ~ Play Offs: ) and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera C (Promotion ~ Play Offs: )).

Mercedes is in fantastic form, winning most of its recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Estrella del Sur has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Mercedes may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Mercedes won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Last Results with these Odds

Mercedes - the odds 3.35 are the expected chance of winning is 26.69%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Club Mercedes
Argentinian Primera C
25.07.26	Berazategui - Mercedes	0:1 ✺
18.07.26	Mercedes - El Porvenir	2:0 ✺
12.07.26	Mercedes - Victoriano Arenas	1:1 ✺
06.07.26	Centro Español - Mercedes	0:3 ✺
27.06.26	Mercedes - Justo José de Urquiza	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 29.5 WWTWW
- Estrella del Sur de Alejandro Korn
Argentinian Primera C
25.07.26	Estrella del Sur - Deportivo Paraguayo	1:0 ✺
12.07.26	Puerto Nuevo - Estrella del Sur	1:0 ✺
04.07.26	Estrella del Sur - Leandro N. Alem	3:0 ✺
28.06.26	Defensores de Cambaceres - Estrella del Sur	0:3 ✺
14.06.26	Juventud Unida de San Miguel - Estrella del Sur	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera C
05.04.26	Estrella del Sur - Mercedes	0:0

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