Match Info

National League North - Round 36

Date: 28 February 2026, Saturday


	Merthyr Town		Buxton

	1	X	2
	2.15	4	2.7
	2.18	3.8	2.68
	2.15	3.99	2.87
	2.3	3.89	2.65	Watch
	2.15	3.7	2.8
	2.18	4.06	2.74
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.19 ↑ (2.07)	3.91 ↓ (4.04)	2.74 ↓ (2.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Merthyr Town
42.4%

Draw
23.7%

Buxton
33.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.8%

23%

32.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.6%

23.1%

32.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Merthyr Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

Buxton has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Merthyr Town than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Buxton than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

Merthyr Town - Buxton Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
6', 1 - 0, Lucas L. ⚽,
13', 1 - 1, Johnston J. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
65', 1 - 2, Flint W. ⚽,
75', 1 - 3, Gilsenan Z. ⚽,

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ National League North (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 14).

In recent matches, Merthyr has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Buxton's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Buxton may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Merthyr won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3. (average 1:1.5).

Outrights of English National League North for now

Buxton: 4.86% Merthyr Town: 1.46%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Buxton	10	5	1	4	18:18	0	16
13	Merthyr Town	10	3	4	3	12:11	1	13

Last Results with these Odds

Buxton - the odds 2.88 are the expected chance of winning is 32.21%, but this team recently wins 10% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Merthyr Town
English National League North
24.02.26	Leamington - Merthyr Town	1:2 ✺
21.02.26	Alfreton Town - Merthyr Town	3:2 ✺
14.02.26	Merthyr Town - Bedford Town	7:1 ✺
10.02.26	Kidderminster Harriers - Merthyr Town	0:0 ✺
07.02.26	Merthyr Town - Chorley	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 WLWTL
- Buxton FC
English National League North
24.02.26	Buxton - King`s Lynn Town	1:2 ✺
21.02.26	Buxton - Fylde	0:3 ✺
17.02.26	Southport - Buxton	0:0 ✺
14.02.26	Chester - Buxton	1:0 ✺
10.02.26	Buxton - Peterborough Sports	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LLTLT

Latest Head to Head

English National League North
29.11.25	Buxton - Merthyr Town	1:2
English FA Cup
05.11.22	Buxton - Merthyr Town	2:0

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