Match Info

ENGLAND: SOUTHERN LEAGUE SOUTH DIVISION - ROUND 40

Date: 10 April 2023, Monday


	Merthyr Town		Yate Town

	1	X	2
	1.46	4.6	4.75
	1.49	5.01	4.87
	1.47	4.5	5.45
	1.45	4.75	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.47 ↓ (1.59)	4.72 ↑ (4.32)	5.02 ↑ (4.06)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 7.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Merthyr Town
62.4%

Draw
19.4%

Yate Town
18.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.8%

20.9%

22.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.9%

19.8%

21.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Merthyr Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Merthyr Town's performance.

Yate Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Merthyr Town than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Yate Town than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

Merthyr Town - Yate Town Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Merthyr won 2.

Recent matches Merthyr is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Yate is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

In this match Merthyr is a favorite.

Last 6 head-to-head matches Merthyr won 2 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 8-9.

Including matches at home between the teams Merthyr won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Merthyr Town
English Southern League South Division
07.04.23	Beaconsfield Town - Merthyr Town	3:5 ✺
01.04.23	Merthyr Town - Hanwell Town	3:1 ✺
25.03.23	Dorchester Town - Merthyr Town	0:2 ✺
18.03.23	Merthyr Town - Hendon	1:2 ✺
14.03.23	Poole Town - Merthyr Town	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 WWWLL
- Yate Town
English Southern League South Division
08.04.23	Yate Town - Metropolitan Police	2:1 ✺
01.04.23	Chesham United - Yate Town	5:1 ✺
25.03.23	Yate Town - Bracknell Town	0:2 ✺
18.03.23	Beaconsfield Town - Yate Town	3:2 ✺
11.03.23	Yate Town - North Leigh	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.4 WLLLL

Latest Head to Head

English Southern League South Division
26.12.22	Yate Town - Merthyr Town	2:2
27.12.21	Merthyr Town - Yate Town	0:3
30.08.21	Yate Town - Merthyr Town	2:2
26.12.19	Merthyr Town - Yate Town	2:1
English FA Trophy
08.10.13	Yate Town - Merthyr Town	1:2
05.10.13	Merthyr Town - Yate Town	0:0

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