Match Info

ENGLAND: Southern League Premier South - Round 16

Date: 16 November 2024, Saturday


	Dorchester Town		Merthyr Town

	1	X	2
	2.75	3.6	2.1
	2.8	3.65	2.14
	2.77	3.87	2.15
	2.85	3.86	2.2
	2.82	3.58	2.15
	2.8	3.65	2.14
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.8 ↑ (2.71)	3.7 ↑ (3.69)	2.15 ↓ (2.17)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Dorchester Town
32.7%

Draw
24.7%

Merthyr Town
42.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.5%

24.6%

41.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.9%

24.1%

42.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Dorchester Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

Merthyr Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Dorchester Town than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Merthyr Town than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

Dorchester Town - Merthyr Town Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
19', 0 - 1, Simpson K. ⚽,
43', 1 - 1, Buse M. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', 1 - 2, Simpson K. ⚽,
69', 2 - 2, Buse M. ⚽,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day. Two teams from the very top of the board will meet (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Southern League Premier South (Play Offs: ) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ National League South).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Dorchester won 2.

Recent matches Dorchester is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Merthyr is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Merthyr could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Dorchester have a series of guest games.

In this match the chances to achieve triumph for both teams are almost equal.

Last 17 head-to-head matches Dorchester won 4 matches, drawn 6 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 26:26 (average 1.5:1.5).

Including matches at home between the teams Dorchester won 1 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 7:12 (average 0.9:1.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Dorchester Town - the odds 2.71 are the expected chance of winning is 33.53%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Dorchester Town
English Southern League South Division
13.11.24	Gosport Borough - Dorchester Town	2:2 ✺
09.11.24	Bracknell Town - Dorchester Town	1:1 ✺
02.11.24	Swindon Supermarine - Dorchester Town	1:0 ✺
English FA Trophy
26.10.24	Totton - Dorchester Town	1:0 ✺
English Southern League South Division
22.10.24	Dorchester Town - Plymouth Parkway	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 TTLLW
- Merthyr Town
English Southern League South Division
09.11.24	Merthyr Town - Havant & Waterlooville	5:1 ✺
02.11.24	Plymouth Parkway - Merthyr Town	2:4 ✺
26.10.24	Merthyr Town - Frome Town	4:0 ✺
19.10.24	Merthyr Town - Marlow	2:1 ✺
English FA Trophy
05.10.24	Totton - Merthyr Town	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

English Southern League South Division
20.01.24	Dorchester Town - Merthyr Town	3:2
English FA Trophy
07.10.23	Merthyr Town - Dorchester Town	3:1
English Southern League South Division
05.08.23	Merthyr Town - Dorchester Town	3:2
25.03.23	Dorchester Town - Merthyr Town	0:2
25.10.22	Merthyr Town - Dorchester Town	1:3
05.03.22	Dorchester Town - Merthyr Town	1:3
09.11.21	Merthyr Town - Dorchester Town	1:1

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