Match Info

Europa League - Qualification - Semi-finals

Date: 14 August 2025, Thursday

Location: MCH Arena (Herning)

Referee: Weinberger J. (Aut)

Where to Watch on TV:


Denmark	Disney+
Norway	VG+
Sweden	Disney+


	Midtjylland		Fredrikstad

	1	X	2
	1.5	4.75	5	Watch
	1.44	4.75	6
	1.46	4.7	5.9	Watch
	1.52	4.67	5.8
	1.21	6.81	11.24	Watch
	1.4	4.33	6
	1.45	5.04	6.82	Watch
	1.4	4.7	7.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.42 ↑ (1.35)	4.97 ↑ (4.9)	6.82 ↓ (9.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Midtjylland
66.9%

Draw
19.2%

Fredrikstad
14%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

70.6%

19.5%

9.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

73.1%

18.8%

9.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Midtjylland has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

Fredrikstad has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Midtjylland than the current prediction. (+6.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Midtjylland, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fredrikstad than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
89.7%	3.4%	6.9%

Midtjylland - Fredrikstad Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 15 Selected Experts predict this event. Midtjylland (votes: 11 - 73.3%). Fredrikstad (votes: 3 - 20%). Tie (votes: 1 - 6.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.5 - Fredrikstad (2.62) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Midtjylland will win (26 of 29 users predict this - 89.66%).
Confidence interval (95%): 78.58% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 16 Selected Experts predict this event. Midtjylland (votes: 11 - 68.8%). Fredrikstad (votes: 4 - 25%). Tie (votes: 1 - 6.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Olafsson E. (G) 13. Gabriel A. 6. Erlic M. 22. Bech Sorensen M. (C) 29. Paulinho 58. Simsir A. 19. Bravo P. 21. Castillo D. 41. Gogorza M. 9. Buksa A. 7. Franculino	77. Borsheim M. (G) 28. Owusu S. 12. Fredriksen U. 22. Woledzi M. 5. Rafn S. (C) 11. Metcalfe P. 6. Owusu L. 20. Ohlenschlaeger O. 4. Molde S. 23. Skogvold H. 14. Bjartalid J.
Substitutes
55. Bak V. 20. Byskov V. 14. Chilufya E. 10. Cho Gue-Sung 80. Dani Silva 90. Etim F. 74. Junior Brumado 3. Lee Han-Beom 1. Lossl J. (G) 43. Mbabu K. 11. Osorio D. 31. Selin L. (G)	18. Begby L. 16. Eid D. 40. Granaas E. 9. Holten E. 17. Kvile S. 25. Langbraten O. (G) 2. Okpaleke K. 1. Ovretveit O. (G) 19. Shein R. R. 3. Skaret B. 31. Solberg E. 13. Sorlokk S.
Coaches
Thomasberg T.	Hagen A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
9', 1 - 0, Bech Sorensen M. ⚽,
17', 2 - 0, Paulinho ⚽, Gogorza M. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Bjartalid J. ↓, Holten E. ↑,
46', Rafn S. ↓, Shein R. R. ↑,
58', Ohlenschlaeger O. ↓, Sorlokk S. ↑,
59', Buksa A. ↓, Byskov V. ↑,
59', Erlic M. ↓, Lee Han-Beom ↑,
60', Franculino ↓, Chilufya E. ↑,
70', Owusu S. ↓, Eid D. ↑,
75', Bravo P. ↓, Dani Silva ↑,
78', Gogorza M. ↓, Osorio D. ↑,
78', Owusu L. ↓, Granaas E. ↑,
85', Gabriel A. 🟨,
89', Molde S. 🟨,

Preview

1st leg result: 3-1. 2nd leg.

Midtjylland is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Fredrikstad's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Midtjylland may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Midtjylland is the clear favorite.

We predict that Midtjylland will win today's game, with odds of 1.43.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Midtjylland won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:2. (average 1.5:1).

Including home match between the teams, Midtjylland won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Midtjylland
Danish Superliga
10.08.25	Midtjylland - Fredericia	3:3 ✺
UEFA Europa League
07.08.25	Fredrikstad - Midtjylland	1:3 ✺
Danish Superliga
03.08.25	AGF Aarhus - Midtjylland	0:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
31.07.25	Hibernian - Midtjylland	1:2 ET ✺
Danish Superliga
28.07.25	Midtjylland - SønderjyskE	6:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 TWTWW
- Fredrikstad FK
UEFA Europa League
07.08.25	Fredrikstad - Midtjylland	1:3 ✺
Norwegian Eliteserien
02.08.25	Tromsø - Fredrikstad	0:0 ✺
25.07.25	Fredrikstad - Strømsgodset	3:2 ✺
20.07.25	Hamarkameratene - Fredrikstad	1:1 ✺
16.07.25	Fredrikstad - Bodø Glimt	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 LTWTL

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa League
07.08.25	Fredrikstad - Midtjylland	1:3
Atlantic Cup
09.02.24	Midtjylland - Fredrikstad	0:1

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