Match Info

EUROPE: Champions League - League phase - Round 7

Date: 22 January 2025, Wednesday

Location: Stadio Giuseppe Meazza (San Siro) (Milan)

Referee: Stieler T. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, New World Sport App, SuperSport Football, SuperSport GOtv Football
Argentina	ESPN 4
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 5, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 6
Belgium	Pickx+ Sports 5, Pickx+ Sports 5, Play Sports Golf
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 2, Moja TV
Brazil	Max
Canada	DAZN Canada
China	iQIYI, QQ Sports
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 2, Cytavision Sports 2
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	MTV Katsomo, MTV Katsomo+
France	Canal+ Live 6
Georgia	Silk Sport 3
Germany	DAZN 1 Deutsch
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 7
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 4
Hungary	RTL+
Iceland	Viaplay
India	Sony LIV
Indonesia	beIN Connect, Vidio
Italy	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Italia
Kosovo	ART Motion Sport 1
Laos	beIN Connect
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 2
Mexico	Caliente TV App, Caliente TV
Myanmar	Canal+ Myanmar
New-zealand	DAZN New Zealand
Norway	TV2 Play
Pakistan	Tapmad
Philippines	beIN Connect
Poland	Canal+ Extra 6
Portugal	DAZN 3
Romania	Prima Sport 3
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
Slovakia	Voyo
South-america	ESPN 4 South, ViX Latin America
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones 2
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 8, Blue Sport 8
Thailand	beIN Connect
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 4
United-kingdom	Discovery+ UK, TNT Sports 6
Usa	CBS, Flow Sports 1, Paramount+
Venezuela	Inter
Vietnam	ON Sport, TV 360
World	Disney+, JioTV app


	Milan		Girona

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.61	4.25	5.62
				Watch
	1.62	4	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.62 ↑ (1.45)	4.13 ↓ (4.72)	5.31 ↓ (6.91)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Milan
59%

Draw
23.1%

Girona
17.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65.9%

20.3%

13.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

69%

19.4%

13.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Milan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Milan's form might have worsened.

Girona has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Milan than the current prediction. (+10%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Milan, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Girona than the current prediction. (-4.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75.7%	10.8%	13.5%

Milan - Girona Predictions

Users Predictions: 73 users predict this event. Milan will win (votes: 55 - 75.3%). Girona will win (votes: 10 - 13.7%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 11%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Milan: 65.4% – 85.2%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Maignan M. (C) 22. Emerson Royal 31. Pavlovic S. 46. Gabbia M. 19. Hernandez T. 29. Fofana Y. 4. Bennacer I. 80. Musah Y. 14. Reijnders T. 10. Leao R. 7. Morata A.	13. Gazzaniga P. (G) 16. Frances A. 5. Lopez D. (C) 18. Krejci L. 17. Blind D. 21. Herrera Y. 14. Romeu O. 6. van de Beek D. 8. Tsygankov V. 20. Gil B. 9. Ruiz A.
Substitutes
90. Abraham T. 33. Bartesaghi D. 2. Calabria D. 73. Camarda F. 17. Okafor N. 11. Pulisic C. 57. Sportiello M. (G) 42. Terracciano F. 96. Torriani L. (G) 18. Zeroli K.	36. Artero R. 10. Asprilla Y. 28. Clua Oya S. 11. Danjuma A. 15. Juanpe 25. Lopez P. (G) 4. Martinez A. 23. Martin I. 24. Portu 22. Solis Romero J. E. 7. Stuani C.
Coaches
Conceicao S.	Michel

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
4', Emerson Royal ↓, Calabria D. ↑,
37', 1 - 0, Leao R. ⚽, Bennacer I. (A),
41', Fofana Y. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
59', Gil B. 🟨,
64', Morata A. ↓, Abraham T. ↑,
72', Tsygankov V. ↓, Martin I. ↑,
72', Ruiz A. ↓, Stuani C. ↑,
72', Gil B. ↓, Danjuma A. ↑,
72', van de Beek D. ↓, Asprilla Y. ↑,
75', Bennacer I. ↓, Pulisic C. ↑,
75', Reijnders T. ↓, Terracciano F. ↑,
77', Herrera Y. ↓, Portu ↑,
80', Hernandez T. 🟨,
82', Martin I. 🟨,

Preview

Milan is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Girona is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Milan could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Milan have a series of guest games.

In this match Milan is a favorite.

There will not play in Milan: Chukwueze S. (Thigh Injury) Florenzi A. (Knee Injury) Loftus-Cheek R. (Thigh Injury) Okafor N. (Injury) Thiaw M. (Injury) Tomori F. (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Girona: Miovski B. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Milan: Morata A. (Muscle Injury) Pulisic C. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Girona: Danjuma A. (Illness) Gutierrez M. (Ankle Injury)

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AC Milan
Italian Serie A
18.01.25	Juventus - Milan	2:0 ✺
14.01.25	Como - Milan	1:2 ✺
11.01.25	Milan - Cagliari	1:1 ✺
Italian Super Cup
06.01.25	Inter Milan - Milan	2:3 ✺
03.01.25	Juventus - Milan	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.8 LWTWW
- Girona FC
Spanish LaLiga
18.01.25	Girona - Sevilla	1:2 ✺
11.01.25	Deportivo Alavés - Girona	0:1 ✺
20.12.24	Girona - Valladolid	3:0 ✺
14.12.24	Mallorca - Girona	2:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
10.12.24	Girona - Liverpool	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 LWWLL

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