Match Info

LaLiga - Round 18

Date: 4 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadi Mallorca Son Moix (Palma de Mallorca)

Referee: Alberola J. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Mallorca		Girona

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.2	3.5	Watch
	2.35	3	3.3
	2.22	3.2	3.45	Watch
	2.36	2.99	3.43
	2.21	3.25	3.48	Watch
	2.2	3	3.3
	2.32	3.3	3.56	Watch
	2.25	3.14	3.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.26 ↓ (2.3)	3.14 ↓ (3.23)	3.44 ↑ (3.26)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mallorca
42%

Draw
30.3%

Girona
27.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.4%

29.5%

29.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.8%

29.2%

28.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mallorca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

Girona has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mallorca than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Girona than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
54.3%	32.6%	13%

Mallorca - Girona Predictions

Users Predictions: 46 users predict this event. Mallorca will win (votes: 25 - 54.3%). Girona will win (votes: 6 - 13%). It will Tie (votes: 15 - 32.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Mallorca: 39.9% – 68.7%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 12 Selected Experts predict this event. Mallorca (votes: 4 - 33.3%). Girona (votes: 1 - 8.3%). Tie (votes: 7 - 58.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 0.75, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Roman L. (G) 23. Maffeo P. 24. Valjent M. 21. Raillo A. (C) 22. Mojica J. 8. Morlanes M. 12. Samu Costa 11. Asano T. 10. Darder S. 17. Virgili J. 7. Muriqi V.	13. Gazzaniga P. (G) 4. Martinez A. (C) 12. Vitor Reis 17. Blind D. 24. Moreno A. 15. Tsygankov V. 11. Lemar T. 20. Witsel A. 23. Martin I. 21. Gil B. 19. Vanat V.
Substitutes
13. Bergstrom L. (G) 18. Joseph M. 4. Kumbulla M. 3. Lato T. 19. Llabres J. 27. Lopez D. 5. Mascarell O. 2. Morey Bauza M. 9. Prats A. 26. Salhi I. 6. Sanchez A. 20. Torre P.	43. Andreev A. (G) 32. Arango J. 10. Asprilla Y. 44. Ba P. 16. Frances A. 29. Kourouma L. 25. Krapyvtsov V. (G) 5. Lopez D. 2. Rincon H. 3. Roca J. 22. Solis Romero J. E.
Coaches
Arrasate J.	Michel

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
25', 0 - 1, Tsygankov V. ⚽, Vitor Reis (A),
37', Samu Costa 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Morlanes M. ↓, Mascarell O. ↑,
58', Darder S. 🟨,
59', Moreno A. 🟨,
63', 0 - 2, Vanat V. (Penalty Awarded),
64', Asano T. ↓, Joseph M. ↑,
64', Darder S. ↓, Torre P. ↑,
64', Samu Costa ↓, Sanchez A. ↑,
70', Lemar T. ↓, Frances A. ↑,
75', Gil B. ↓, Roca J. ↑,
89', Maffeo P. ↓, Llabres J. ↑,
90+1', 1 - 2, Muriqi V. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 14 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ LaLiga2).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mallorca won 3.

Mallorca has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Girona has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Girona may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Mallorca has had a series of away games.

Mallorca is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Mallorca: Pichu Cuellar (Injury)

There will not play in Girona: Artero R. (Ankle Injury) Juan Carlos (Knee Injury) Ounahi A. (International duty) Portu (Knee Injury) Ruiz A. (Muscle Injury) Stuani C. (Calf Injury) van de Beek D. (Achilles Tendon Injury)

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Mallorca won 7 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 18:17. (average 1.1:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Mallorca won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 12:6. (average 1.3:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- RCD Mallorca
Spanish LaLiga
19.12.25	Valencia - Mallorca	1:1 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
16.12.25	Deportivo A Coruña - Mallorca	1:0 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
13.12.25	Mallorca - Elche	3:1 ✺
05.12.25	Real Oviedo - Mallorca	0:0 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
02.12.25	Numancia - Mallorca	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 TLWTW
- Girona FC
Spanish LaLiga
21.12.25	Girona - Atlético Madrid	0:3 ✺
12.12.25	Real Sociedad - Girona	1:2 ✺
07.12.25	Elche - Girona	3:0 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
03.12.25	Ourense CF - Girona	2:1 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
30.11.25	Girona - Real Madrid	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.4 LWLLT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga
05.05.25	Girona - Mallorca	1:0
14.12.24	Mallorca - Girona	2:1
03.03.24	Mallorca - Girona	1:0
Spanish Copa del Rey
24.01.24	Mallorca - Girona	3:2
Spanish LaLiga
23.09.23	Girona - Mallorca	5:3
04.05.23	Girona - Mallorca	2:1
03.09.22	Mallorca - Girona	1:1

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