Match Info

Serie A - Round 16

Date: 15 January 2026, Thursday


	Como		Milan

	1	X	2
	3.1	3.2	2.45	Watch
	3.05	3.15	2.48	Watch
	3.19	3.25	2.44	Watch
	3	3	2.38
	3.23	3.23	2.52
	3.14	3	2.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.12 ↑ (2.89)	3.14 ↓ (3.25)	2.46 ↓ (2.51)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Como
30.7%

Draw
30.5%

Milan
38.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.9%

29.2%

37.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.2%

29.4%

37.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Como has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

Milan has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Como than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Milan than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
9.5%	49.2%	41.3%

Como - Milan Predictions

Users Predictions: 62 users predict this event. Como will win (votes: 6 - 9.7%). Milan will win (votes: 25 - 40.3%). It will Tie (votes: 31 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 37.6% – 62.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 28 Selected Experts predict this event. Como (votes: 3 - 10.7%). Milan (votes: 9 - 32.1%). Tie (votes: 16 - 57.1%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Milan (1.36) (votes: 4 - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 50%) .

AH -1 - Milan (3.80) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.25 - Como (1.80) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - draw (3.04) (votes: 0 - 0%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 35 Selected Experts predict this event. Como (votes: 5 - 14.3%). Milan (votes: 14 - 40%). Tie (votes: 16 - 45.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Butez J. (G) 77. Van der Brempt I. 14. Ramon J. 2. Kempf M. O. 18. Moreno A. 23. Perrone M. 33. Da Cunha L. (C) 31. Vojvoda M. 10. Paz N. 20. Baturina M. 11. Douvikas A.	16. Maignan M. (C) 23. Tomori F. 46. Gabbia M. 5. De Winter K. 56. Saelemaekers A. 19. Fofana Y. 14. Modric L. 12. Rabiot A. 33. Bartesaghi D. 18. Nkunku C. 10. Leao R.
Substitutes
6. Caqueret M. 99. Cerri A. 34. Diego Carlos 4. Dossena A. 19. Kuhn N. 55. Le Borgne A. 27. Posch S. 8. Roberto S. 17. Rodriguez J. 28. Smolcic I. 21. Tornqvist N. (G) 3. Valle A. 22. Vigorito M. (G)	24. Athekame Z. 38. Castiello A. 35. Dutu M. 2. Estupinan P. 9. Fullkrug N. 30. Jashari A. 8. Loftus-Cheek R. 27. Odogu D. 11. Pulisic C. 4. Ricci S. 1. Terracciano P. (G) 96. Torriani L. (G)
Coaches
Fabregas C.	Allegri M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
10', 1 - 0, Kempf M. O. ⚽, Baturina M. (A),
45', 1 - 1, Nkunku C. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Kempf M. O. ↓, Diego Carlos ↑,
55', 1 - 2, Rabiot A. ⚽, Leao R. (A),
60', Da Cunha L. ↓, Caqueret M. ↑,
60', Baturina M. ↓, Rodriguez J. ↑,
62', Nkunku C. ↓, Fullkrug N. ↑,
66', Vojvoda M. ↓, Kuhn N. ↑,
70', Leao R. ↓, Loftus-Cheek R. ↑,
70', Fofana Y. ↓, Ricci S. ↑,
76', Moreno A. ↓, Roberto S. ↑,
86', Modric L. ↓, Jashari A. ↑,
86', Saelemaekers A. ↓, Athekame Z. ↑,
88', 1 - 3, Rabiot A. ⚽,
90+1', Ramon J. 🟨,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: ) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

Como is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Milan's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Como may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Como won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:4. (average 1:2).

Including home match between the teams, Como won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Outrights of Italian Serie A for now

AC Milan: 7.71% Como: 6.53%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	AC Milan	5	3	2	0	10:4	6	11
8	Como	5	3	1	1	9:6	3	10

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Calcio Como
Italian Serie A
10.01.26	Como - Bologna	1:1 ✺
06.01.26	Pisa - Como	0:3 ✺
03.01.26	Como - Udinese	1:0 ✺
27.12.25	Lecce - Como	0:3 ✺
15.12.25	Roma - Como	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 TWWWL
- AC Milan
Italian Serie A
11.01.26	Fiorentina - Milan	1:1 ✺
08.01.26	Milan - Genoa	1:1 ✺
02.01.26	Cagliari - Milan	0:1 ✺
28.12.25	Milan - Verona	3:0 ✺
Italian Super Cup
18.12.25	Napoli - Milan	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 TTWWL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
15.03.25	Milan - Como	2:1
14.01.25	Como - Milan	1:2

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