Match Info

Serie A - Round 38

Date: 24 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Stadio Giuseppe Meazza (San Siro) (Milan)

Referee: Guida M. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


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Argentina	Disney+, ESPN
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Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Austria	DAZN
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Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 3, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Canada	DAZN Canada, fubo Sports Network 2 DRM, fubo Sports Network, FuboTV
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Colombia	ESPN
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Denmark	TV2 Play
Europe	Go3 Sport 2 Baltic, Setanta Sports 1 Baltic
Finland	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Max
France	DAZN France
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 2
Haiti	Tele Haiti
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 3, M Plus Live
Hungary	Match 4
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Iraq	Almanasa
Italy	214 DAZN Zona, DAZN Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan
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Malaysia	Astro Arena Bola, Astro Go, Sooka
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Turkey	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 2
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 5, MEGOGO Futbol 6, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	DAZN
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Paramount+
Venezuela	Disney+
Vietnam	VTVcab
World	Starzplay Sports app


	Milan		Cagliari

	1	X	2
	1.38	4.75	7.5	Watch
	1.29	5.75	10
	1.39	4.7	8.8	Watch
	1.38	4.93	9.8
	1.37	4.95	9.3	Watch
	1.33	4.5	9.5
	1.42	5.01	7.92
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.37 ↓ (1.44)	4.94 ↑ (4.65)	8.97 ↓ (9.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Milan
70%

Draw
19.3%

Cagliari
10.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

68.3%

21.1%

10.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

71.9%

20%

10.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Milan has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

Cagliari has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Milan than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cagliari than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.4%	4.2%	10.4%

Milan - Cagliari Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Milan (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 0.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1.5 - Milan (2.09) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Milan will win (41 of 48 users predict this - 85.42%).
Confidence interval (95%): 75.44% – 95.4%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Milan (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Maignan M. (C) 23. Tomori F. 46. Gabbia M. 31. Pavlovic S. 56. Saelemaekers A. 19. Fofana Y. 30. Jashari A. 12. Rabiot A. 33. Bartesaghi D. 7. Gimenez S. 18. Nkunku C.	1. Caprile E. (G) 32. Pedro J. 26. Mina Y. 15. Rodriguez J. 28. Zappa G. 8. Adopo M. 10. Gaetano G. 14. Deiola A. (C) 33. Obert A. 94. Esposito Se. 29. Borrelli G.
Substitutes
24. Athekame Z. 25. Bosveld C. 5. De Winter K. 2. Estupinan P. 9. Fullkrug N. 10. Leao R. 8. Loftus-Cheek R. 14. Modric L. 27. Odogu D. 37. Pittarella M. (G) 11. Pulisic C. 4. Ricci S. 45. Sardo J. 96. Torriani L. (G) 34. Vladimirov V.	20. Albarracin A. 19. Belotti A. 24. Ciocci G. (G) 22. Dossena A. 17. Felici M. 36. Grandu N. 4. Mazzitelli L. 31. Mendy P. 2. Palestra M. 18. Raterink O. 41. Russo A. 12. Sherri A. (G) 25. Sulemana I. 38. Sulev I. 37. Trepy Y.
Coaches
Allegri M.	Pisacane F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
2', Pedro J. 🟨,
2', 1 - 0, Saelemaekers A. ⚽, Gimenez S. (A),
20', 1 - 1, Borrelli G. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Gimenez S. ↓, Pulisic C. ↑,
56', Pavlovic S. 🟨,
57', 1 - 2, Rodriguez J. ⚽,
58', Maignan M. 🟨,
61', Tomori F. ↓, Athekame Z. ↑,
61', Nkunku C. ↓, Fullkrug N. ↑,
62', Jashari A. ↓, Modric L. ↑,
62', Rodriguez J. ↓, Dossena A. ↑,
63', Pedro J. ↓, Palestra M. ↑,
68', Fofana Y. ↓, Leao R. ↑,
74', Borrelli G. ↓, Mendy P. ↑,
74', Deiola A. ↓, Sulemana I. ↑,
90+5', Esposito Se. ↓, Felici M. ↑,
90+6', Sulemana I. 🟨,

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 16).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Milan won 3.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Cagliari may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Milan is the clear favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Milan won 14 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 43:15. (average 2.2:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Milan won 8 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 26:6. (average 2.6:0.6).

Outrights of Italian Serie A for now

AC Milan: 7.71% Cagliari: 0.38%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Cagliari	5	4	0	1	5:2	3	12
5	AC Milan	5	3	2	0	10:4	6	11

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AC Milan
Italian Serie A
17.05.26	Genoa - Milan	1:2 ✺
10.05.26	Milan - Atalanta	2:3 ✺
03.05.26	Sassuolo - Milan	2:0 ✺
26.04.26	Milan - Juventus	0:0 ✺
19.04.26	Verona - Milan	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 WLLTW
- Cagliari Calcio
Italian Serie A
17.05.26	Cagliari - Torino	2:1 ✺
09.05.26	Cagliari - Udinese	0:2 ✺
03.05.26	Bologna - Cagliari	0:0 ✺
27.04.26	Cagliari - Atalanta	3:2 ✺
17.04.26	Inter Milan - Cagliari	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.2 WLTWL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
02.01.26	Cagliari - Milan	0:1
11.01.25	Milan - Cagliari	1:1
09.11.24	Cagliari - Milan	3:3
11.05.24	Milan - Cagliari	5:1
Coppa Italia
02.01.24	Milan - Cagliari	4:1
Italian Serie A
27.09.23	Cagliari - Milan	1:3
19.03.22	Cagliari - Milan	0:1

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