Match Info

League Two - Round 18

Date: 29 November 2025, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Stadium MK (Milton Keynes) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Humphries A. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
United Kingdom	12:30	Sky Sports+


	Milton Keynes Dons		Fleetwood Town

	1	X	2
	1.66	3.6	4.75
	1.7	3.95	4.45
	1.7	3.94	4.75
	1.82	3.76	3.84	Watch
	1.73	3.64	4.53	Watch
	1.69	3.8	4.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.72 ↓ (1.82)	3.78 ↑ (3.76)	4.51 ↑ (3.84)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Milton Keynes Dons
54.5%

Draw
24.7%

Fleetwood Town
20.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

51.1%

24.7%

24.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.8%

25.5%

23.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Milton Keynes Dons has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

Fleetwood Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Milton Keynes Dons than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fleetwood Town than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
77.8%	22.2%	0%

Milton Keynes Dons - Fleetwood Town Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. MK Dons will win (votes: 7 - 77.8%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for MK Dons: 50.6% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. MK Dons (votes: 2 - 50%). Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.75 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.75 - MK Dons (1.89) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. MK Dons (votes: 3 - 60%). Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. MacGillivray C. (G) 15. Offord L. 21. Ekpiteta M. 32. Sanders J. 16. Nemane A. 20. Thompson-Sommers K. 6. Kelly L. 8. Gilbey A. (C) 14. Tomlinson J. 11. Mendez-Laing N. 13. Paterson C.	13. Lynch J. (C) 18. Holgate H. 44. Mullarkey T. 32. Hughes K. 20. Neal H. 16. Ennis E. 14. McCann L. 8. Virtue-Thick M. 10. Helm M. 19. Coughlan R. 9. Davies W.
Substitutes
18. Collar W. 10. Collins A. 2. Jones G. 23. Maguire L. 22. Mellish J. 34. Tripp C. 27. Trueman C. (G)	6. Bonds E. 17. Evans C. 7. Graydon R. 1. Harrington D. (G) 3. Medley Z. 23. Morrison G. 5. Potter F.
Coaches
Warne P.	Wild P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
37', 1 - 0, Mendez-Laing N. (Pen),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
56', Ekpiteta M. 🟨,
61', Ennis E. ↓, Medley Z. ↑,
61', Coughlan R. ↓, Graydon R. ↑,
62', Mendez-Laing N. 🟨,
68', 2 - 0, Nemane A. ⚽,
70', Mendez-Laing N. ↓, Collins A. ↑,
70', Nemane A. ↓, Jones G. ↑,
70', Davies W. ↓, Evans C. ↑,
70', Virtue-Thick M. ↓, Bonds E. ↑,
72', 2 - 1, Evans C. ⚽, Graydon R. (A),
82', Tomlinson J. ↓, Mellish J. ↑,
85', Thompson-Sommers K. ↓, Collar W. ↑,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ League Two (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, MK Dons won 0.

MK Dons has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Fleetwood is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, MK Dons is the team to beat.

There will not play in MK Dons: Hepburn-Murphy R. (Hamstring Injury) Leko J. (Red Card) Wilson K. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Fleetwood: Bolton J. (Red Card) Davies J. (Inactive) Hume D. (Inactive) Johnson W. (Inactive) Norwood J. (Suspended) Potter F. (Inactive) Roberts L. (Inactive) Rooney S. (Foot Injury)

There are questionable in MK Dons: Collins A. (Hamstring Injury) Hogan S. (Inactive) Lemonheigh-Evans C. (Inactive) Mendez-Laing N. (Injury)

There are questionable in Fleetwood: Graydon R. (Injury)

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, MK Dons won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 23:20. (average 1.5:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, MK Dons won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 12:12. (average 1.7:1.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Milton Keynes Dons
English League Two
22.11.25	Tranmere Rovers - Milton Keynes Dons	2:2 ✺
15.11.25	Milton Keynes Dons - Salford City	2:0 ✺
English EFL Trophy
11.11.25	Milton Keynes Dons - Swindon Town	0:4 ✺
English League Two
08.11.25	Barnet - Milton Keynes Dons	2:2 ✺
English FA Cup
01.11.25	Colchester United - Milton Keynes Dons	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 TWLTW
- Fleetwood Town
English League Two
22.11.25	Fleetwood Town - Shrewsbury Town	3:1 ✺
15.11.25	Fleetwood Town - Swindon Town	1:1 ✺
English EFL Trophy
11.11.25	Port Vale - Fleetwood Town	3:4 penalties ✺
English League Two
08.11.25	Crawley Town - Fleetwood Town	2:1 ✺
English FA Cup
01.11.25	Fleetwood Town - Barnet	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.1 WTWLW

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
29.03.25	Milton Keynes Dons - Fleetwood Town	2:4
21.01.25	Fleetwood Town - Milton Keynes Dons	2:1
English League One
22.04.23	Fleetwood Town - Milton Keynes Dons	1:0
10.12.22	Milton Keynes Dons - Fleetwood Town	1:2
08.02.22	Fleetwood Town - Milton Keynes Dons	1:1
28.09.21	Milton Keynes Dons - Fleetwood Town	3:3
01.05.21	Fleetwood Town - Milton Keynes Dons	1:1

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