Match Info

Liga AUF Uruguaya - Clausura - Round 9

Date: 28 September 2025, Sunday

Location: Parque Palermo (Montevideo)

Referee: Burgos J. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
South-america	Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Latinoamerica
Turkey	Spor Smart 1
Uruguay	Disney+, VTV+
Usa	Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter


	Miramar Misiones		Defensor Sporting

	1	X	2
	3.5	3.3	2.05	Watch
	3.4	3.15	2.05
	3.69	3.33	2.13
	3.67	3.06	2.13	Watch
	3.54	3.22	2.1	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.56 ↑ (3.33)	3.21 ↑ (3.16)	2.09 ↓ (2.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Miramar Misiones
26.2%

Draw
29.1%

Defensor Sporting
44.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.3%

29.8%

41.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.6%

29%

43%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Miramar Misiones has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

Defensor Sporting has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Miramar Misiones than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Defensor Sporting than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	25%	75%

Miramar Misiones - Defensor Sporting Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Defensor Sporting will win (votes: 3 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Defensor Sporting will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Moreno J. (G) 16. Gomez M. 19. Olivera A. (C) 29. Ayala J. 4. Lopez P. 8. Pandiani A. 22. Diaz O. 10. Ramirez G. 25. Olivera D. 9. Da Silva S. 24. Silvera F.	12. Dawson K. (G) 13. Furtado N. 3. De los Santos G. (C) 15. Viacava J. 14. Pacifico P. 24. de los Santos L. 5. Barrios G. 11. Agazzi L. 6. Amaro M. 16. Alvarez J. 28. Navarro L.
Substitutes
15. Alonso F. 26. Crisafi J. F. 23. Nunez D. 80. Ortiz P. 14. Pereira G. 31. Pirez M. (G) 21. Rodriguez A. 37. Roldan M. 11. Sosa A. 18. Tirado F.	19. Abreu D. 25. Biscayzacu X. 90. Cambon A. 2. Lima A. 1. Machado L. (G) 4. Rodriguez G. 61. Saravia M. 18. Sena N. 22. Torterolo A. 8. Wunsch N.
Coaches
Giordano B.	Ithurralde I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
13', Da Silva S. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Pandiani A. ↓, Nunez D. ↑,
47', Furtado N. 🟨,
61', Nunez D. 🟨,
61', Barrios G. 🟨,
68', Barrios G. ↓, Torterolo A. ↑,
68', Pacifico P. ↓, Wunsch N. ↑,
74', Torterolo A. 🟨,
77', Silvera F. ↓, Roldan M. ↑,
81', Navarro L. ↓, Abreu D. ↑,
81', Furtado N. ↓, Biscayzacu X. ↑,
87', Ramirez G. ↓, Rodriguez A. ↑,
87', Da Silva S. ↓, Crisafi J. F. ↑,
90+2', Lopez P. ↓, Alonso F. ↑,

Preview

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Defensor Sporting may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Miramar Misiones won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 1:8. (average 0.2:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Miramar Misiones won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1. (average 0:0.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Miramar Misiones - the odds 3.33 are the expected chance of winning is 28.3%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Defensor Sporting - the odds 2.25 are the expected chance of winning is 41.92%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Miramar Misiones
Uruguayan Primera Division
21.09.25	Cerro - Miramar Misiones	1:0 ✺
14.09.25	Miramar Misiones - Montevideo Wanderers	3:0 ✺
07.09.25	Progreso - Miramar Misiones	3:2 ✺
31.08.25	Danubio - Miramar Misiones	2:3 ✺
23.08.25	Miramar Misiones - Cerro Largo	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.1 LWLWT
- Defensor Sporting
Uruguayan Primera Division
19.09.25	Defensor Sporting - Danubio	2:1 ✺
13.09.25	Cerro Largo - Defensor Sporting	1:0 ✺
Uruguay Copa
10.09.25	Oriental de La Paz - Defensor Sporting	0:2 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
05.09.25	Defensor Sporting - Juventud de Las Piedras	1:0 ✺
30.08.25	Liverpool Montevideo - Defensor Sporting	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
31.03.25	Defensor Sporting - Miramar Misiones	2:0
30.11.24	Miramar Misiones - Defensor Sporting	0:0
02.06.24	Defensor Sporting - Miramar Misiones	3:0
02.03.14	Defensor Sporting - Miramar Misiones	2:1
22.09.13	Miramar Misiones - Defensor Sporting	0:1

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