Match Info

BRAZIL: Serie B - Round 17

Date: 23 July 2024, Tuesday

Location: Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia (Mirassol)

Referee: Ferreira J. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
World	Amazon Prime Video


	Mirassol		Avaí

	1	X	2
	1.83	3	5.25	Watch
	1.83	3	4.6
	1.8	3.2	5
	1.93	3.15	5.2
	1.98	3.03	4.36	Watch
	1.83	3.2	4.6
	1.84	3.2	4.81	Watch
	1.82	3	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.86 ↑ (1.74)	3.1 ↓ (3.32)	4.85 ↓ (4.96)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mirassol
50.4%

Draw
30.2%

Avaí
19.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.4%

27.9%

18.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.4%

27.4%

18.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mirassol has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

Avaí has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mirassol than the current prediction. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Avaí than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
92.3%	0%	7.7%

Mirassol - Avaí Predictions

Users Predictions: Mirassol will win (12 of 12 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Alex Muralha (G) 19. Lucas Ramon 3. Lucas Gazal 34. Joao Victor 37. Zeca 27. Gabriel (C) 8. Danielzinho 10. Chico Kim 11. Negueba 49. Dellatorre 7. Fernandinho	31. Cesar Augusto (G) 63. Marcos Vinicius 3. Tiago Pagnussat 4. Roberto Rosa 33. Mario Sergio 6. Willian Maranhao 21. Pedro Castro 8. Giovanni 25. Natanael 9. Vagner Love (C) 11. Mauricio Garcez
Substitutes
2. Alex Silva 16. Bruno Matias 44. Henri 14. Isaque 20. Joao Pedro 4. Luiz Otavio 98. Marquinhos 6. PH 9. Quirino 1. Vanderlei (G) 33. Wanderson	5. Alan 89. Cassiano 69. Favero 20. Gaspar 82. Gustavo Talles 1. Igor Bohn (G) 29. Jean Lucas 28. Ronaldo Henrique 10. Willian Pottker
Coaches
Mozart	Gilmar Pozzo

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
45+2', Gabriel (Pen),
45+3', Natanael 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
55', Chico Kim ↓, Isaque ↑,
71', Negueba ↓, Joao Pedro ↑,
72', Giovanni ↓, Jean Lucas ↑,
82', Vagner Love ↓, Cassiano ↑,
84', Dellatorre ↓, Quirino ↑,
84', Gabriel ↓, Bruno Matias ↑,
84', Fernandinho ↓, Marquinhos ↑,
88', Jean Lucas 🟨,
90+3', Willian Maranhao 🟨,
90+3', Natanael ↓, Ronaldo Henrique ↑,

Preview

During this match we will see a game between leader and a team of mid-table (ranked 5 and 9).

Recent matches Mirassol is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Avaí is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Avaí could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Mirassol is a favorite.

There will not play in Mirassol: Neto Moura (Injury)

Last 2 head-to-head matches Mirassol won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2-3.

Including matches at home between the teams Mirassol won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mirassol
Brazilian Serie B
19.07.24	Coritiba - Mirassol	0:1 ✺
12.07.24	Ponte Preta - Mirassol	4:2 ✺
09.07.24	Mirassol - CRB Maceio	1:0 ✺
02.07.24	Grêmio Novorizontino - Mirassol	1:1 ✺
25.06.24	Mirassol - Santos	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 WLWTT
- Avaí
Brazilian Serie B
19.07.24	Avaí - Ceará	0:1 ✺
14.07.24	Vila Nova - Avaí	2:1 ✺
08.07.24	Avaí - Grêmio Novorizontino	0:1 ✺
30.06.24	Avaí - Amazonas	1:1 ✺
25.06.24	América Mineiro - Avaí	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 LLLTT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
01.08.23	Mirassol - Avaí	2:2
22.04.23	Avaí - Mirassol	1:0

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