Match Info

J2 League - Round 38

Date: 29 November 2025, Saturday

Location: Best Denki Stadium (Mito)

Where to Watch on TV:


Japan	DAZN Japan


	Mito HollyHock		Oita Trinita

	1	X	2
	1.51	3.5	7	Watch
	1.52	3.5	6.9	Watch
	1.54	3.63	7.89
	1.72	3.26	5.46	Watch
	1.56	3.51	7.03	Watch
	1.86	3	4.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.62 ↓ (1.65)	3.4 ↑ (3.27)	6.44 ↑ (5.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mito HollyHock
57.9%

Draw
27.6%

Oita Trinita
14.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55%

27.8%

17.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.7%

23.1%

20.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mito HollyHock has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

Oita Trinita has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mito HollyHock than the current prediction. (-12.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Mito HollyHock that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Oita Trinita than the current prediction. (+6.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Oita Trinita could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Mito HollyHock - Oita Trinita Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Mito HollyHock (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.25, 1st Half - Mito HollyHock (1.83) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -2.25 - Mito HollyHock (5.46) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Mito HollyHock will win (8 of 8 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Mito HollyHock (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
51. Haruna R. (G) 4. Ushizawa T. 97. Takahashi T. 36. Itakura K. 39. Yamamoto H. 47. Semba T. 3. Osaki K. 2. Omori S. 99. Kato C. 8. Saito S. 25. Tada K.	32. Hamada T. (G) 31. Matheus Pereira 2. Okamoto T. 3. Derlan 27. Matsuo Y. 18. Nodake J. 25. Sakakibara K. 4. Satsukawa A. 38. Amagasa T. 14. Ikeda R. 13. Isa K.
Substitutes
13. Aihara S. 70. Arai M. 71. Fofana M. 22. Kubo S. 21. Matsubara S. (G) 19. Murata K. 15. Nagao Y. 16. Tsukagawa K. 7. Watanabe A.	21. Ayukawa S. 11. Gleyson 33. Miyakawa A. 22. Mun Kyung-Gun (G) 10. Nomura N. 8. Ochiai R. 30. Tone I. 39. Udo S. 29. Utsumoto S.
Coaches
Mori N.	Takenaka M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Ikeda R. ↓, Gleyson ↑,
46', 1 - 0, Tada K. ⚽, Saito S. (A),
58', Isa K. ↓, Nomura N. ↑,
58', Nodake J. ↓, Udo S. ↑,
67', Amagasa T. ↓, Ayukawa S. ↑,
70', Tada K. ↓, Tsukagawa K. ↑,
75', 2 - 0, Yamamoto H. ⚽, Tsukagawa K. (A),
78', Satsukawa A. ↓, Utsumoto S. ↑,
82', Yamamoto H. ↓, Watanabe A. ↑,
82', Kato C. ↓, Murata K. ↑,
90+3', Saito S. ↓, Arai M. ↑,
90+3', Semba T. ↓, Nagao Y. ↑,

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League and 16).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mito HollyHock won 1.

Mito HollyHock has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Oita Trinita has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Mito HollyHock is the team to beat.

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Mito HollyHock won 5 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 16:13. (average 1.1:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Mito HollyHock won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:6. (average 1.3:0.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mito HollyHock
Japan J2 League
22.11.25	V-Varen Nagasaki - Mito HollyHock	2:1 ✺
09.11.25	Mito HollyHock - Omiya Ardija	0:2 ✺
02.11.25	Ventforet Kofu - Mito HollyHock	0:1 ✺
26.10.25	Consadole Sapporo - Mito HollyHock	0:1 ✺
19.10.25	Mito HollyHock - JEF United Chiba	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 LLWWL
- Oita Trinita
Japan J2 League
22.11.25	Oita Trinita - JEF United Chiba	0:1 ✺
08.11.25	Consadole Sapporo - Oita Trinita	3:1 ✺
02.11.25	Oita Trinita - Montedio Yamagata	1:2 ✺
26.10.25	Roasso Kumamoto - Oita Trinita	0:1 ✺
19.10.25	Oita Trinita - Vegalta Sendai	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 LLLWT

Latest Head to Head

Japan J2 League
09.03.25	Oita Trinita - Mito HollyHock	0:0
20.10.24	Oita Trinita - Mito HollyHock	0:0
18.05.24	Mito HollyHock - Oita Trinita	1:1
23.09.23	Mito HollyHock - Oita Trinita	0:1
23.04.23	Oita Trinita - Mito HollyHock	0:1
23.08.22	Mito HollyHock - Oita Trinita	2:0
09.03.22	Oita Trinita - Mito HollyHock	1:1

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