Match Info

J1 League - Placement Play Offs - 17th place

Date: 30 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Peace Stadium (Nagasaki)


	V-Varen Nagasaki		Mito HollyHock

	1	X	2
	2.32	3.3	3	Watch
	2.35	3.25	2.95
	2.3	3.2	2.98	Watch
	2.38	3.39	3.07
	2.35	3.36	2.99	Watch
	2.3	3.1	2.9
	2.33	3.35	2.94	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.33 ↑ (2.21)	3.28 ↑ (3.25)	2.98 ↓ (3.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

V-Varen Nagasaki
40.1%

Draw
28.5%

Mito HollyHock
31.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.7%

29%

28.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39%

26.5%

31%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

V-Varen Nagasaki has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

Mito HollyHock has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for V-Varen Nagasaki than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mito HollyHock than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.7%	14.3%	0%

V Varen Nagasaki - Mito HollyHock Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. V-Varen Nagasaki will win (votes: 6 - 85.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Goto M. (G) 22. Onaga H. 4. Dudu Giusti 6. Egawa Y. 3. Sekiguchi M. 44. Nabeshima H. 5. Yamaguchi H. (C) 17. Takahata K. 41. Hasegawa M. 33. Kasayanagi T. 10. Matheus Jesus	34. Nishikawa K. (G) 25. Mase T. 2. Danilo Cardoso 17. Itakura K. 7. Omori S. (C) 70. Matheus Leiria 19. Semba T. 8. Kato C. 14. Arai M. 29. Tada K. 11. Torikai Y.
Substitutes
11. Campbell N. 21. Diego Pituca 13. Hatano G. (G) 45. Hyeung-jun N. 34. Matsumoto T. 20. Nakamura K. 19. Sawada T. 48. Teruyama H. 23. Yoneda S.	13. Aihara S. 33. Ando K. 6. Iida T. 5. Inoue S. 21. Matsubara S. (G) 15. Nagao Y. 9. Nemoto R. 20. Patryck 39. Yamamoto H.
Coaches
Takagi T.	Kimori D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
1', 1 - 0, Matheus Jesus ⚽, Kasayanagi T. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
59', Arai M. ↓, Yamamoto H. ↑,
59', Tada K. ↓, Patryck ↑,
61', Takahata K. ↓, Yoneda S. ↑,
61', Nabeshima H. ↓, Diego Pituca ↑,
72', Kasayanagi T. ↓, Matsumoto T. ↑,
74', Matheus Leiria ↓, Ando K. ↑,
74', Kato C. ↓, Nagao Y. ↑,
79', Torikai Y. ↓, Nemoto R. ↑,
83', Egawa Y. ↓, Teruyama H. ↑,
83', Hasegawa M. ↓, Nakamura K. ↑,

Preview

First leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, V-Varen Nagasaki won 2.

In recent matches, V-Varen Nagasaki has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Mito HollyHock is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in V-Varen Nagasaki: Emerson Deocleciano (Knee Injury) Iwasaki Y. (Injury) Nagura T. (Illness) Thiago (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Mito HollyHock: Fofana M. (Hamstring Injury) Osaki K. (Knee Injury) Shimatani K. (Lower Back Injury)

There are questionable in V-Varen Nagasaki: Shindo R. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, V-Varen Nagasaki won 11 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 33:21. (average 1.7:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, V-Varen Nagasaki won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 15:7. (average 1.5:0.7).

Outrights of Japan J1 League for now

Mito: 0.78% V-Varen Nagasaki: 0.6%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
11	Mito	4	1	2	1	6:5	1	5
18	V-Varen Nagasaki	4	1	0	3	4:9	-5	3

Last Results with these Odds

V-Varen Nagasaki - the odds 2.21 are the expected chance of winning is 42.7%, but this team recently wins 60% of matches with these odds.

Mito HollyHock - the odds 3.34 are the expected chance of winning is 28.26%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- V-Varen Nagasaki
Japan J1 League
23.05.26	Kyoto Sanga - V-Varen Nagasaki	1:0 ✺
17.05.26	V-Varen Nagasaki - Vissel Kobe	3:2 penalties ✺
09.05.26	Cerezo Osaka - V-Varen Nagasaki	3:2 ✺
06.05.26	V-Varen Nagasaki - Fagiano Okayama	2:1 ✺
03.05.26	V-Varen Nagasaki - Nagoya Grampus	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.4 LWLWL
- Mito HollyHock
Japan J1 League
24.05.26	Mito HollyHock - Kawasaki Frontale	1:3 ✺
16.05.26	Mito HollyHock - Tokyo Verdy	0:1 ✺
09.05.26	Mito HollyHock - Urawa Red Diamonds	1:4 ✺
06.05.26	Kashima Antlers - Mito HollyHock	3:0 ✺
02.05.26	Yokohama F. Marinos - Mito HollyHock	1:2 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 LLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J2 League
22.11.25	V-Varen Nagasaki - Mito HollyHock	2:1
31.05.25	Mito HollyHock - V-Varen Nagasaki	3:0
03.08.24	V-Varen Nagasaki - Mito HollyHock	1:2
02.06.24	Mito HollyHock - V-Varen Nagasaki	2:3
12.08.23	Mito HollyHock - V-Varen Nagasaki	3:3
03.05.23	V-Varen Nagasaki - Mito HollyHock	4:0
14.09.22	Mito HollyHock - V-Varen Nagasaki	0:1

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