Match Info

ITALY: Serie B - Round 28

Date: 2 March 2025, Sunday

Location: Stadio Alberto Braglia (Modena)

Referee: Caputi M. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	DAZN Italia


	Modena		Nuova Cosenza

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.75	3.3	5
				Watch
	1.78	3.37	5.58
				Watch
	1.95	3.1	4.2
				Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.83 ↓ (2)	3.26 ↑ (3.08)	4.93 ↑ (3.98)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Modena
51.8%

Draw
29%

Nuova Cosenza
19.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.5%

30.1%

23.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.5%

29.5%

22.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Modena has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Modena's performance.

Nuova Cosenza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Modena than the current prediction. (-4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nuova Cosenza than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
81.2%	6.2%	12.5%

Modena - Nuova Cosenza Predictions

Users Predictions: Modena will win (13 of 16 users predict this - 81.25%).
Confidence interval (95%): 62.12% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
26. Gagno R. (G) 25. Dellavalle A. 19. Zaro G. 33. Cauz C. 7. Duca E. 10. Palumbo A. 16. Gerli F. 8. Santoro S. 27. Idrissi R. 92. Defrel G. 20. Caso G.	1. Micai A. (C) 29. Sgarbi F. 23. Venturi M. 15. Dalle Mura C. 5. Gargiulo M. 16. Ricciardi M. 28. Kouan C. 6. Charlys 19. Ciervo R. 9. Artistico G. 10. Fumagalli T.
Substitutes
5. Battistella T. 2. Beyuku G. 31. Botteghin E. 21. Bozhanaj K. 23. Caldara M. 29. Cotali M. 9. Gliozzi E. 93. Kamate I. 6. Magnino L. 11. Mendes P. 1. Seculin A. (G) 14. Vulikic S.	12. Baldi G. (G) 2. Cimino B. 18. Cruz J. M. 11. D'Orazio T. 55. Hristov A. 39. Kourfalidis C. 4. Martino P. 30. Mazzocchi S. 31. Ricci G. 20. Rizzo Pinna A. 22. Vettorel T. (G) 21. Zilli M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
15', Idrissi R. 🟨,
28', 0 - 1, Artistico G. ⚽, Kouan C. (A),
35', Duca E. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Defrel G. ↓, Mendes P. ↑,
46', Caso G. ↓, Gliozzi E. ↑,
63', Fumagalli T. ↓, Mazzocchi S. ↑,
64', Charlys 🟨,
71', Duca E. ↓, Kamate I. ↑,
75', Ciervo R. ↓, Zilli M. ↑,
75', Artistico G. ↓, D'Orazio T. ↑,
76', Idrissi R. ↓, Bozhanaj K. ↑,
85', 1 - 1, Mendes P. ⚽,
90', Gliozzi E. 🟨,

Preview

This match a meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will be held (ranked 10 and 20 in the zone Relegation).

Recent matches Modena is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Cosenza is in cheap shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Modena could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Modena is a favorite.

There will not play in Cosenza: Caporale A. (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in Modena: Di Pardo A. (Thigh Injury) Pergreffi A. (Knee Injury)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Modena won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 7:5 (average 1.4:1).

Including matches at home between the teams Modena won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3:1 (average 1.5:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Modena
Italian Serie B
22.02.25	Cittadella - Modena	0:2 ✺
15.02.25	Modena - Spezia	1:1 ✺
08.02.25	Sampdoria - Modena	1:0 ✺
01.02.25	Modena - Mantova	3:1 ✺
26.01.25	Cremonese - Modena	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 WTLWT
- Nuova Cosenza
Italian Serie B
23.02.25	Nuova Cosenza - Palermo	0:3 ✺
16.02.25	Juve Stabia - Nuova Cosenza	3:0 ✺
08.02.25	Nuova Cosenza - Carrarese	1:0 ✺
01.02.25	Sampdoria - Nuova Cosenza	1:0 ✺
25.01.25	Nuova Cosenza - Cittadella	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
22.11.24	Nuova Cosenza - Modena	1:1
10.02.24	Modena - Nuova Cosenza	1:1
29.08.23	Nuova Cosenza - Modena	1:2
21.01.23	Modena - Nuova Cosenza	2:0
21.08.22	Nuova Cosenza - Modena	2:1

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