Match Info

ITALY: SERIE B - ROUND 11

Date: 29 October 2023, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	Sky Sport


	Modena		Ternana

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.5	4.2	Watch
	1.88	3.4	4
	1.9	3.4	4	Watch
	2.02	3.45	3.45
	1.92	3.53	4.45
	2	3.4	3.7
	1.87	3.54	4.1	Watch
	1.9	3.5	3.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.93 ↓ (2.2)	3.47 ↑ (3.36)	3.98 ↑ (3.11)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Modena
49%

Draw
27.2%

Ternana
23.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.3%

27.8%

29.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.8%

26.8%

28.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Modena has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Modena's performance.

Ternana has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Ternana might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Modena than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Modena that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ternana than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Ternana could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
62.5%	37.5%	0%

Modena - Ternana Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Modena will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 37.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Modena: 29% – 96%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Seculin A. (G) 99. Oukhadda S. 19. Zaro G. 33. Cauz C. 27. Riccio A. 6. Magnino L. 16. Gerli F. 5. Palumbo A. 10. Tremolada L. 32. Strizzolo L. 7. Duca E.	1. Iannarilli A. (G) 13. Mantovani V. 4. Sorensen F. 3. Celli A. 23. Diakite S. 71. Luperini G. 66. Pyyhtia N. 27. Favasuli C. 44. Lucchesi L. 17. Favilli A. 10. Falletti C.
Substitutes
90. Abiuso F. 23. Battistella T. 9. Bonfanti N. 30. Bozhanaj K. 29. Cotali M. 11. Falcinelli D. 21. Giovannini R. 8. Guiebre A. 17. Manconi J. 4. Pergreffi A. 3. Ponsi F. 22. Vandelli F. (G)	15. Casasola T. 91. Corrado N. 8. de Boer K. 65. Dionisi F. 28. Di Stefano F. 77. Gabriel Brazao (G) 30. Garau O. 73. Marginean I. 9. Raimondo A. 33. Travaglini C. 18. Vitali T. (G) 24. Viviani F.
Coaches
Bianco P.	Lucarelli C.

Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will play in this match (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 18 in the zone Relegation).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Modena won 2.

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Ternana could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Modena is a favorite.

Last 10 head-to-head matches Modena won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 14-14.

Including matches at home between the teams Modena won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 10-8.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Modena
Italian Serie B
24.10.23	Brescia - Modena	0:1 ✺
21.10.23	Bari - Modena	1:1 ✺
07.10.23	Modena - Palermo	0:2 ✺
30.09.23	Modena - Venezia	1:3 ✺
26.09.23	Südtirol-Alto Adige - Modena	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 WTLLT
- Ternana Calcio
Italian Serie B
21.10.23	Ternana - Brescia	0:1 ✺
07.10.23	Cittadella - Ternana	2:2 ✺
30.09.23	Ternana - Reggiana	3:0 ✺
26.09.23	Ascoli - Ternana	2:0 ✺
23.09.23	Ternana - Südtirol-Alto Adige	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 LTWLT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
28.01.23	Ternana - Modena	2:1
27.08.22	Modena - Ternana	4:1
30.01.16	Ternana - Modena	2:1
18.09.15	Modena - Ternana	1:0
16.05.15	Modena - Ternana	1:2
24.12.14	Ternana - Modena	1:0
25.04.14	Modena - Ternana	3:3

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