Match Info

Serie B - Round 21

Date: 24 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Stadio Alberto Braglia (Modena)

Referee: Dionisi F. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	DAZN Italia, LAB Channel
World	Onefootball


	Modena		Palermo

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.1	3.25	Watch
	2.25	3	3.3
	2.36	3.1	3.57
	2.23	3.14	3.37	Watch
	2.25	3.1	3.1
	2.3	3.17	3.32	Watch
	2.28	3	3.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.27 ↑ (2.17)	3.09 ↓ (3.24)	3.33 (3.33)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Modena
41.4%

Draw
30.4%

Palermo
28.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.1%

28.9%

28.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.2%

29.6%

27.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Modena has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

Palermo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Modena than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Palermo than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
42.9%	42.9%	14.3%

Modena - Palermo Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Modena will win (votes: 6 - 42.9%). Palermo will win (votes: 2 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 42.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Modena: 17% – 68.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Modena (votes: 1 - 25%). Tie (votes: 3 - 75%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DC - Palermo (1.62) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH -0.5 - Modena (2.21) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Modena (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Palermo (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Tie (votes: 3 - 42.9%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Chichizola L. (G) 77. Tonoli D. 19. Nador S. 20. Nieling B. 98. Zanimacchia L. 17. Massolin Y. 16. Gerli F. 8. Santoro S. 7. Zampano F. 99. De Luca M. 11. Mendes P.	66. Joronen J. (G) 29. Peda P. 13. Bani M. 32. Ceccaroni P. 27. Pierozzi N. 6. Gomes C. 10. Ranocchia F. 3. Augello T. 5. Palumbo A. 8. Segre J. 20. Pohjanpalo J.
Substitutes
28. Adorni D. 2. Beyuku G. 33. Cauz C. 29. Cotali M. 92. Defrel G. 25. Dellavalle A. 23. Di Mariano F. 9. Gliozzi E. 13. Laidani A. (G) 6. Magnino L. 22. Pezzolato M. (G) 18. Pyyhtia N.	19. Bereszynski B. 28. Blin A. 31. Corona G. 77. Di Bartolo F. (G) 17. Giovane S. 1. Gomis A. (G) 11. Gyasi E. 21. Le Douaron J. 14. Vasic A.
Coaches
Sottil A.	Inzaghi F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)
63', Gomes C. ↓, Gyasi E. ↑,
63', De Luca M. ↓, Gliozzi E. ↑,
63', Zanimacchia L. ↓, Beyuku G. ↑,
76', Gyasi E. 🟨,
77', Peda P. ↓, Bereszynski B. ↑,
80', Massolin Y. ↓, Pyyhtia N. ↑,
80', Mendes P. ↓, Defrel G. ↑,
83', Pohjanpalo J. ↓, Corona G. ↑,
83', Palumbo A. ↓, Le Douaron J. ↑,
84', Nador S. 🟨,
89', Santoro S. ↓, Magnino L. ↑,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Modena won 0.

Modena has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Palermo is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Modena could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Modena: Sersanti A. (Inactive)

There will not play in Palermo: Magnani G. (Leg Injury)

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Modena won 1 match, drew 4 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 11:19. (average 1.1:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Modena won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:7. (average 0.8:1.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Palermo	6	5	1	0	14:7	7	16
6	Modena	5	3	1	1	8:4	4	10

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Modena
Italian Serie B
18.01.26	Pescara - Modena	0:2 ✺
11.01.26	Padova - Modena	2:0 ✺
26.12.25	Modena - Monza	1:2 ✺
20.12.25	Modena - Venezia	1:2 ✺
13.12.25	Spezia - Modena	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 WLLLW
- U.S. Città di Palermo
Italian Serie B
18.01.26	Palermo - Spezia	1:0 ✺
11.01.26	Mantova - Palermo	1:1 ✺
27.12.25	Palermo - Padova	1:0 ✺
20.12.25	Avellino - Palermo	2:2 ✺
12.12.25	Palermo - Sampdoria	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 WTWTW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
19.10.25	Palermo - Modena	1:1
12.01.25	Palermo - Modena	2:0
19.10.24	Modena - Palermo	2:2
20.01.24	Palermo - Modena	4:2
07.10.23	Modena - Palermo	0:2
17.03.23	Palermo - Modena	5:2
29.10.22	Modena - Palermo	0:2

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