Match Info

Serie C - Group B - Round 21

Date: 9 January 2026, Friday

Location: Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca (Ascoli Piceno)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia
International	FIFA+


	Ascoli		Ternana

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.28	2.92	3.2
	2.34	2.83	3.26	Watch
	2.3	2.63	3.1
	2.3	2.82	3.2	Watch
	2.36	2.9	3.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.32 ↑ (1.99)	2.82 ↓ (3.13)	3.19 ↓ (3.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ascoli
39.3%

Draw
32.2%

Ternana
28.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

46.1%

29.2%

24.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.1%

30.4%

23.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ascoli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Ascoli's form might have worsened.

Ternana has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ascoli than the current prediction. (+8.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ascoli, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ternana than the current prediction. (-4.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
41.7%	25%	33.3%

Ascoli - Ternana Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Ascoli will win (votes: 5 - 41.7%). Ternana will win (votes: 4 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ascoli: 13.8% – 69.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Ascoli (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Ternana (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 0.5, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Vitale S. (G) 23. Alagna M. 33. Rizzo N. 2. Pagliai G. 3. Nicoletti M. 80. Corradini G. 62. Milanese T. 7. Silipo A. 25. Rizzo Pinna A. 15. D'Uffizi S. 9. Chakir M. A.	71. D'Alterio F. (G) 20. Donati F. 13. Maestrelli A. 19. Capuano M. 2. Bianay Balcot C. 80. Proietti M. 4. Vallocchia A. 43. Ndrecka A. 7. Romeo F. 32. Pettinari S. 9. Dubickas E.
Substitutes
24. Bando A. 46. Barosi D. (G) 41. Brzan R. (G) 18. Corazza S. 27. Cozzoli F. 14. Galuppini F. 35. Gori G. 19. Menna D. 6. Ndoj E. 11. Oviszach E. 29. Palazzino F. 60. Zagari R.	11. Brignola E. 38. Bruti T. 70. Durmush M. 27. Ferrante A. 17. Kerrigan L. 10. Leonardi S. 8. McJannet E. 14. Meccariello B. 12. Morlupo A. (G) 30. Orellana M. 5. Tripi F. 33. Valenti M. 1. Vitali T. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
61', 1 - 0, Chakir M. A. ⚽,
66', Dubickas E. ↓, Leonardi S. ↑,
66', Pettinari S. ↓, Ferrante A. ↑,
73', Ferrante A. 🟨,
75', Alagna M. 🟨,
77', Proietti M. ↓, McJannet E. ↑,
77', Bianay Balcot C. ↓, Durmush M. ↑,
83', Rizzo Pinna A. ↓, Ndoj E. ↑,
83', Chakir M. A. ↓, Gori G. ↑,
83', Silipo A. ↓, Oviszach E. ↑,
90+2', Romeo F. ↓, Orellana M. ↑,
90+3', D'Uffizi S. ↓, Palazzino F. ↑,
90+6', Milanese T. ↓, Bando A. ↑,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C ~ Promotion ~ Play Offs (1/8~finals) and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C ~ Promotion ~ Play Offs (1/32~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ascoli won 3.

Ascoli has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Ternana is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Ascoli could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Ascoli won 12 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 29:18. (average 1.6:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Ascoli won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 14:9. (average 1.6:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ascoli Calcio
Italian Serie C Group B
03.01.26	Pianese - Ascoli	4:2 ✺
21.12.25	Ascoli - Campobasso	0:0 ✺
14.12.25	Guidonia Montecelio - Ascoli	0:0 ✺
08.12.25	Ascoli - Forlì	3:0 ✺
01.12.25	Vis Pesaro - Ascoli	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 LTTWT
- Ternana Calcio
Italian Serie C Group B
04.01.26	Ternana - Livorno	2:1 ✺
21.12.25	Pianese - Ternana	0:0 ✺
14.12.25	Ternana - Bra	2:0 ✺
Coppa Italia Serie C
10.12.25	Ternana - Brescia	4:1 ✺
Italian Serie C Group B
07.12.25	Perugia - Ternana	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.5 WTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group B
31.08.25	Ternana - Ascoli	0:2
23.02.25	Ascoli - Ternana	0:3
13.10.24	Ternana - Ascoli	3:1
Italian Serie B
27.04.24	Ternana - Ascoli	0:1
26.09.23	Ascoli - Ternana	2:0
15.01.23	Ternana - Ascoli	1:0
14.08.22	Ascoli - Ternana	2:1

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