Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 33

Date: 10 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Stade Louis II (Monaco)

Referee: Turpin C. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 1, StarTimes App, TV5 Monde Africa, TV5 Monde Maghreb-Orient
Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD, TV5 Monde Asia, TV5 Monde Pacifique
Austria	DAZN
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Brazil	Caze TV, Claro TV+, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	Diema Sport, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	beIN Connect
Chile	Disney+
China	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	Arena Sport 7, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cablenet Sports 2, Cablenet Sports 2
Denmark	Viaplay
Europe	TV5 Monde Europe
Finland	Viaplay 1 Urheilu, Viaplay 2 Urheilu, Viaplay
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2, DAZN France, Free, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Hong-kong	beIN SPORTS MAX
Israel	5 LIVE Israel
Italy	Ligue 1+
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	ART Sport 6
Mexico	FOX One, Tubi TV
Netherlands	Viaplay
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Norway	TV2 Play, Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	Cignal Play
Romania	Voyo
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Sport 1, Arena Sport 2
South-america	TV5 Monde Amerique Latine
South-korea	Coupang Play
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport 1
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 6, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Ligue 1+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz, TV5 Monde
Venezuela	Disney+
World	Onefootball


	Monaco		Lille

	1	X	2
	2.55	3.75	2.55	Watch
	2.35	3.75	2.75
	2.58	3.55	2.62	Watch
	2.59	3.75	2.69
	2.56	3.56	2.62	Watch
	2.45	3.5	2.5
	2.66	3.78	2.67	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.53 ↑ (2.22)	3.66 ↓ (3.74)	2.63 ↓ (2.87)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Monaco
37.7%

Draw
26%

Lille
36.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.2%

25.1%

32.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.1%

25.7%

31.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Monaco has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

Lille has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Monaco than the current prediction. (+5.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Monaco, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lille than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
39.4%	39.4%	21.2%

Monaco - Lille Predictions

Users Predictions: 33 users predict this event. Monaco will win (votes: 13 - 39.4%). Lille will win (votes: 7 - 21.2%). It will Tie (votes: 13 - 39.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Monaco: 22.7% – 56.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Monaco (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Hradecky L. (G) 5. Kehrer T. 6. Zakaria D. (C) 13. Mawissa C. 4. Teze J. 15. Camara L. 23. Bamba A. 24. Adingra S. 11. Akliouche M. 10. Golovin A. 9. Balogun F.	1. Ozer B. (G) 12. Meunier T. 3. Ngoy N. 23. Mandi A. 15. Perraud R. 32. Bouaddi A. 21. Andre B. (C) 17. Mukau N. 10. Haraldsson H. 27. Correia F. 7. Fernandez-Pardo M.
Substitutes
14. Biereth M. 28. Coulibaly M. 27. Diatta K. 3. Dier E. 25. Faes W. 31. Fati A. 16. Kohn P. (G) 8. Pogba P. 49. Toure I.	4. Alexsandro 6. Bentaleb N. 16. Bodart A. (G) 9. Giroud O. 8. Mbappe E. 18. Mbemba Ch. 28. Perrin G. 11. Sahraoui O. 24. Verdonk C.
Coaches
Pocognoli S.	Genesio B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
23', Bouaddi A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Bouaddi A. ↓, Bentaleb N. ↑,
54', Fernandez-Pardo M. 🟨,
58', Adingra S. ↓, Faes W. ↑,
59', Golovin A. ↓, Fati A. ↑,
59', Bamba A. ↓, Coulibaly M. ↑,
62', Mukau N. ↓, Mbappe E. ↑,
71', Correia F. ↓, Perrin G. ↑,
72', 0 - 1, Zakaria D. (Own goal),
76', Perrin G. 🟨,
79', Coulibaly M. 🟨,
80', Kehrer T. ↓, Toure I. ↑,
80', Teze J. ↓, Biereth M. ↑,
90', Haraldsson H. ↓, Verdonk C. ↑,
90', Perraud R. ↓, Alexsandro ↑,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: ) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Monaco won 1.

Monaco has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Lille is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Monaco may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Monaco: Caio Henrique (Thigh Injury) Idumbo S. (Shoulder Injury) Minamino T. (Knee Injury) Ouattara K. (Knee Injury) Salisu M. (Knee Injury) Vanderson (Thigh Injury)

There will not play in Lille: Broholm M. (Injury) Caillard M. (Elbow Injury) Igamane H. (Knee Injury) Toure O. (Knee Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Monaco won 9 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 32:21. (average 1.6:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Monaco won 5 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 16:8. (average 1.5:0.7).

Outrights of French Ligue 1 for now

Monaco: 8.8% Lille: 4.48%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Monaco	5	4	1	0	8:3	5	13
4	Lille	5	3	1	1	8:4	4	10

Last Results with these Odds

Monaco - the odds 2.22 are the expected chance of winning is 42.24%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AS Monaco
French Ligue 1
02.05.26	Metz - Monaco	1:2 ✺
25.04.26	Toulouse - Monaco	2:2 ✺
19.04.26	Monaco - Auxerre	2:2 ✺
10.04.26	Paris FC - Monaco	4:1 ✺
05.04.26	Monaco - Olympique Marseille	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 WTTLW
- OSC Lille
French Ligue 1
03.05.26	Lille - Le Havre	1:1 ✺
26.04.26	Paris FC - Lille	0:1 ✺
18.04.26	Lille - Nice	0:0 ✺
12.04.26	Toulouse - Lille	0:4 ✺
04.04.26	Lille - Lens	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 TWTWW

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
24.08.25	Lille - Monaco	1:0
22.02.25	Lille - Monaco	2:1
18.10.24	Monaco - Lille	0:0
24.04.24	Monaco - Lille	1:0
29.10.23	Lille - Monaco	2:0
14.05.23	Monaco - Lille	0:0
23.10.22	Lille - Monaco	4:3

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