Match Info

J2 League - Round 26

Date: 16 August 2025, Saturday

Location: ND Soft Stadium Yamagata (Tendo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Japan	DAZN Japan


	Montedio Yamagata		Iwaki

	1	X	2
	2.63	3.25	2.63	Watch
	2.55	3.1	2.4
	2.58	3.2	2.52	Watch
	2.69	3.36	2.71
	2.60	3.24	2.65	Watch
	2.62	3.1	2.45
	2.59	3.22	2.55	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.61 ↑ (2.45)	3.21 ↓ (3.5)	2.56 ↑ (2.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Montedio Yamagata
35.3%

Draw
28.7%

Iwaki
36%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.4%

26.2%

36.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.1%

25.7%

35.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Montedio Yamagata has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

Iwaki has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Montedio Yamagata than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Iwaki than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	40%	40%

Montedio Yamagata - Iwaki Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Montedio Yamagata will win (votes: 2 - 20%). Iwaki will win (votes: 4 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 40%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Iwaki: 9.6% – 70.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Montedio Yamagata (votes: 1 - 50%). Iwaki (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Montedio Yamagata (1.88) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Montedio Yamagata (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Iwaki (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Heward-Belle T. (G) 15. Kawai A. 3. Kumamoto Y. 22. Shirowa H. 13. Nodake H. 71. Nakamura R. 21. Tanaka W. 88. Doi S. 10. Kida R. 90. Disaro A. S. 14. Sakamoto K.	23. Sasaki M. (G) 4. Dohana K. 5. Shirai H. 2. Ishida Y. 32. Igarashi S. 8. Shibata S. 27. Yamanaka A. 24. Yamashita Y. 14. Yamaguchi D. 38. Kumata N. 28. Kim Hyun-woo
Substitutes
5. Abe T. 55. Horikane S. 25. Kokubu S. 18. Minami S. 19. Okamoto K. 45. Shibuya T. (G) 9. Takahashi J. 17. Terayama T. 20. Yoshio Kaina	35. Fukaminato S. 34. Hisanaga R. 39. Joo H. (G) 15. Kase N. 16. Kato T. 20. Kato Y. 19. Onishi Y. 17. Yamada Y.
Coaches
Yokouchi A.	Tamura Y.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
16', Tanaka W. 🟨,
37', Kida R. 🟨,
38', Kawai A. 🟨,
40', Kim Hyun-woo 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
61', Yamaguchi D. ↓, Onishi Y. ↑,
69', Tanaka W. ↓, Terayama T. ↑,
69', Doi S. ↓, Takahashi J. ↑,
76', Yamanaka A. ↓, Fukaminato S. ↑,
76', Kim Hyun-woo ↓, Kato T. ↑,
77', Disaro A. S. ↓, Horikane S. ↑,
78', Sakamoto K. ↓, Kokubu S. ↑,
82', Kumamoto Y. 🟨,
87', 1 - 0, Takahashi J. ⚽,
89', Igarashi S. ↓, Kase N. ↑,
89', Shibata S. ↓, Hisanaga R. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 16 and 12).

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Iwaki may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Montedio Yamagata won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 8:3. (average 1.6:0.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Montedio Yamagata won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:2. (average 2:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Montedio Yamagata - the odds 2.45 are the expected chance of winning is 37.42%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Iwaki - the odds 2.52 are the expected chance of winning is 36.38%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Montedio Yamagata
Japan J2 League
10.08.25	Montedio Yamagata - Mito HollyHock	1:2 ✺
Japan Emperors Cup
06.08.25	Montedio Yamagata - Urawa Red Diamonds	1:2 ✺
Japan J2 League
02.08.25	Ventforet Kofu - Montedio Yamagata	1:3 ✺
Club Friendly
27.07.25	Montedio Yamagata - Reims	1:0 ✺
Japan Emperors Cup
16.07.25	Gamba Osaka - Montedio Yamagata	4:5 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 24 LLWWW
- Iwaki FC
Japan J2 League
10.08.25	Iwaki - Júbilo Iwata	3:1 ✺
02.08.25	JEF United Chiba - Iwaki	2:2 ✺
12.07.25	Iwaki - V-Varen Nagasaki	1:1 ✺
05.07.25	Omiya Ardija - Iwaki	1:2 ✺
28.06.25	Sagan Tosu - Iwaki	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.5 WTTWL

Latest Head to Head

Japan J2 League
12.04.25	Iwaki - Montedio Yamagata	0:1
14.07.24	Montedio Yamagata - Iwaki	1:2
24.03.24	Iwaki - Montedio Yamagata	0:0
04.11.23	Iwaki - Montedio Yamagata	1:3
11.06.23	Montedio Yamagata - Iwaki	3:0

Upcoming Matches