Match Info

J2 League - Round 27

Date: 24 August 2025, Sunday

Location: Peace Stadium (Nagasaki)

Where to Watch on TV:


Japan	DAZN Japan


	V-Varen Nagasaki		Renofa Yamaguchi

	1	X	2
	1.55	4.1	5.25	Watch
	1.61	3.5	4.6
	1.62	3.75	4.75	Watch
	1.58	4.24	5.8
	1.54	4.07	5.75	Watch
	1.62	3.5	4.8
	1.63	3.8	4.85	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.59 ↓ (1.65)	3.85 ↓ (3.95)	5.11 ↑ (4.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

V-Varen Nagasaki
58%

Draw
24%

Renofa Yamaguchi
18.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.1%

23%

21.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.4%

22.5%

21.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

V-Varen Nagasaki has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

Renofa Yamaguchi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for V-Varen Nagasaki than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Renofa Yamaguchi than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
92.9%	7.1%	0%

V Varen Nagasaki - Renofa Yamaguchi Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.75 - V-Varen Nagasaki (1.71) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: V-Varen Nagasaki will win (13 of 14 users predict this - 92.86%).
Confidence interval (95%): 79.37% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): V-Varen Nagasaki will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. V-Varen Nagasaki (votes: 7 - 87.5%). Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Goto M. (G) 48. Teruyama H. 29. Arai I. 44. Egawa Y. 23. Yoneda S. 5. Yamaguchi H. 8. Diego Pituca 50. Onaga H. 10. Matheus Jesus 19. Sawada T. 9. Juanma Delgado	1. Marsman N. (G) 4. Matsuda K. 5. Yoshioka K. 76. Isotani S. 29. Wakasa Y. 49. Mineda Y. 8. Noyori K. 45. Yamamoto O. 55. Okaniwa S. 31. Kusano Y. 9. Arita R.
Substitutes
16. Emerson Deocleciano 31. Harada G. (G) 33. Kasayanagi T. 25. Kushibiki K. 34. Matsumoto T. 20. Nakamura K. 3. Sekiguchi M. 41. Tadokoro R. 24. Yamada R.	98. Firmino A. 20. Kawano K. 6. Kim Byeom-Yong 28. Kobayashi S. 7. Misawa N. 13. Miyayoshi T. 40. Naruoka H. 36. Nishido H. 26. Taguchi J. (G)
Coaches
Takagi T.	Nakayama G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Sawada T. ↓, Emerson Deocleciano ↑,
52', Isotani S. 🟨,
56', Yoneda S. 🟨,
62', Yoneda S. ↓, Kasayanagi T. ↑,
64', Kusano Y. ↓, Misawa N. ↑,
64', Noyori K. ↓, Kawano K. ↑,
71', Juanma Delgado ↓, Nakamura K. ↑,
77', Arita R. ↓, Firmino A. ↑,
78', Mineda Y. ↓, Kim Byeom-Yong ↑,
85', Yamamoto O. ↓, Kobayashi S. ↑,
85', Diego Pituca ↓, Matsumoto T. ↑,
85', Teruyama H. ↓, Sekiguchi M. ↑,
90+1', Yamaguchi H. 🟨,
90+6', 1 - 0, Egawa Y. ⚽, Onaga H. (A),

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ J2 League (Promotion: ) and 19 in the zone Relegation ~ J3 League).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, V-Varen Nagasaki won 1.

In recent matches, V-Varen Nagasaki has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Renofa Yamaguchi is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

V-Varen Nagasaki may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, V-Varen Nagasaki is considered a favorite.

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, V-Varen Nagasaki won 11 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 35:17. (average 2.1:1).

Including home matches between the teams, V-Varen Nagasaki won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 14:11. (average 1.8:1.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- V-Varen Nagasaki
Japan J2 League
17.08.25	Sagan Tosu - V-Varen Nagasaki	1:2 ✺
09.08.25	V-Varen Nagasaki - Consadole Sapporo	2:1 ✺
02.08.25	V-Varen Nagasaki - Vegalta Sendai	0:0 ✺
Japan Emperors Cup
16.07.25	Kashima Antlers - V-Varen Nagasaki	2:1 ✺
Japan J2 League
12.07.25	Iwaki - V-Varen Nagasaki	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 WWTLT
- Renofa Yamaguchi
Japan J2 League
16.08.25	Renofa Yamaguchi - Vegalta Sendai	2:2 ✺
11.08.25	Renofa Yamaguchi - Ventforet Kofu	0:1 ✺
02.08.25	Fujieda MYFC - Renofa Yamaguchi	2:2 ✺
12.07.25	Renofa Yamaguchi - Tokushima Vortis	0:0 ✺
05.07.25	Consadole Sapporo - Renofa Yamaguchi	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 TLTTL

Latest Head to Head

Japan J2 League
22.02.25	Renofa Yamaguchi - V-Varen Nagasaki	2:2
24.08.24	V-Varen Nagasaki - Renofa Yamaguchi	1:2
17.03.24	Renofa Yamaguchi - V-Varen Nagasaki	0:1
09.07.23	V-Varen Nagasaki - Renofa Yamaguchi	0:1
03.06.23	Renofa Yamaguchi - V-Varen Nagasaki	1:1
15.10.22	V-Varen Nagasaki - Renofa Yamaguchi	0:1
22.05.22	Renofa Yamaguchi - V-Varen Nagasaki	1:2

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