Match Info

USL Championship

Date: 19 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Toyota Stadium (Georgetown, KY)

Referee: Verso M. (Usa)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Lexington		Orange County SC

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.63	3.70	4.20
	1.49	4.15	5.3
	1.49	4.64	6.22
	1.5	4.4	5.63	Watch
	1.55	4.25	5.25
	1.54	4.17	5.48	Watch
	1.49	4.2	5.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.53 ↓ (1.6)	4.22 ↑ (4.16)	5.33 ↑ (4.73)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lexington
60.6%

Draw
22%

Orange County SC
17.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58%

22.3%

19.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.4%

18.2%

24%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lexington has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

Orange County SC has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lexington than the current prediction. (-13.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Lexington that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Orange County SC than the current prediction. (+6.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Orange County SC could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Lexington - Orange County SC Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
17. Semmle O. (G) 12. Zengue X. 5. Burks K. 23. Brown J. 2. Greene J. 16. Ferri B. 15. Okello N. 34. Fry M. 8. Nick Firmino 7. Epps M. 9. Goodrum P. (C)	1. Rando A. (G) 16. Lindsey J. 5. Brewitt T. (C) 15. Espy T. 23. Doghman R. 25. Solis E. 27. Kelly S. 20. Bunbury M. 8. Sylla O. 10. Hegardt C. 7. Wathuta S.
Substitutes
40. Addams G. (G) 14. Caborn A. 21. Muir M. 27. Rodrigues B. P. 19. Scott T. 98. Seagrist P. 31. Thompson B. (G) 13. Tschantret M. 20. Yosef M.	12. Bazini Y. 35. Carter Jr. J. 2. Doody G. 31. Kadono T. (G) 50. Ngoie P. 28. O'Brien F. 18. Palomino M. 21. War M. 9. Zubak E.
Coaches
Hemmi M.	Stone D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (4 - 0)
9', 1 - 0, Goodrum P. ⚽, Nick Firmino (A),
15', 2 - 0, Epps M. ⚽, Nick Firmino (A),
24', 3 - 0, Goodrum P. ⚽, Ferri B. (A),
35', 4 - 0, Nick Firmino ⚽, Fry M. (A),
38', Bunbury M. ↓, Carter Jr. J. ↑,
39', Espy T. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Kelly S. ↓, Ngoie P. ↑,
49', 5 - 0, Goodrum P. ⚽, Epps M. (A),
53', Greene J. 🟨,
55', Fry M. ↓, Scott T. ↑,
55', Nick Firmino ↓, Rodrigues B. P. ↑,
61', Scott T. (Penalty Awarded),
64', Sylla O. ↓, Palomino M. ↑,
66', Okello N. ↓, Tschantret M. ↑,
66', Greene J. ↓, Muir M. ↑,
72', Epps M. ↓, Yosef M. ↑,
83', Wathuta S. ↓, War M. ↑,
85', 6 - 0, Tschantret M. ⚽,

Preview

In recent outings, Lexington has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Orange County SC has struggled for form in recent encounters (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Recently, Orange County SC has enjoyed a sequence of home fixtures.

Lexington carries the favorite tag into this contest.

In the last 3 head-to-head meetings, Lexington has recorded 0 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 3:3 (averaging 1:1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Lexington against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with 1:1 goals.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lexington SC
USL Championship
12.09.26	Oakland Roots - Lexington	1:4 ✺
05.09.26	Sporting Jacksonville - Lexington	3:2 ✺
29.08.26	Lexington - Colorado Springs Switchbacks	0:1 ✺
26.08.26	New Mexico United - Lexington	2:1 ✺
22.08.26	Lexington - Las Vegas Lights	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 WLLLW
- Orange County SC
USL Championship
12.09.26	Orange County SC - Las Vegas Lights	0:2 ✺
05.09.26	Orange County SC - Sacramento Republic	1:1 ✺
29.08.26	Oakland Roots - Orange County SC	1:1 ✺
22.08.26	Orange County SC - Tulsa	1:5 ✺
15.08.26	Orange County SC - Louisville City	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 LTTLL

Latest Head to Head

USL Championship
18.04.26	Orange County SC - Lexington	0:0
12.09.25	Lexington - Orange County SC	1:1
15.03.25	Orange County SC - Lexington	2:2

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