Match Info

Liga AUF Uruguaya - Clausura - Round 12

Date: 18 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Centenario (Montevideo)

Referee: Sacarelo B. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Montevideo City Torque		Cerro

	1	X	2
	1.6	3.6	5.75	Watch
	1.62	3.6	5.15
	1.64	3.9	5.58
	1.63	3.68	5.48	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.62 ↓ (1.72)	3.7 ↑ (3.49)	5.49 ↑ (4.76)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Montevideo City Torque
57.6%

Draw
25.3%

Cerro
17%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54%

26.5%

19.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.3%

25.9%

19%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Montevideo City Torque has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

Cerro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Montevideo City Torque than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cerro than the current prediction. (+2%)

Montevideo City Torque - Cerro Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Torgnascioli F. (G) 17. Aguero E. 4. Fratta G. 24. Kagelmacher G. (C) 26. Silvera F. 5. Pizzichillo F. 8. Siles P. 15. Busquets E. 11. Obregon E. 9. Neris P. 21. Nunez W.	25. Bacchia R. (G) 43. Suarez M. 28. Fuica N. 7. Macelli A. (C) 6. Frugone A. 14. Sosa E. 30. Neira I. 32. Caceres S. 29. Paiva S. 9. Larrosa E. 18. Alvarez J.
Substitutes
30. Arevalo K. 31. Da Silva N. 23. Dure L. 3. Garcia B. 14. Kociubinski B. 29. Martinez F. 22. Mendez R. (G) 16. Molina I. 10. Pino L. 27. Taran J.	22. Acosta F. 27. Camacho S. 1. Cubero M. (G) 23. Farias M. 8. Miranda A. 31. Morales B. 10. Ocampo M. 19. Techera F. 24. Valenzuela I. 5. Villar M.
Coaches
Mendez M.	Silva T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
19', Silvera F. 🟨,
29', Frugone A. 🟨,
38', 0 - 1, Caceres S. ⚽,
45', 0 - 2, Larrosa E. (Pen),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Alvarez J. ↓, Ocampo M. ↑,
46', Silvera F. ↓, Da Silva N. ↑,
62', Caceres S. 🟨,
63', 1 - 2, Neris P. ⚽,
72', Frugone A. ↓, Miranda A. ↑,
72', Paiva S. ↓, Valenzuela I. ↑,
74', Nunez W. ↓, Arevalo K. ↑,
74', Fratta G. ↓, Dure L. ↑,
80', Sosa E. 🟨,
82', Siles P. 🟨,
87', Busquets E. ↓, Molina I. ↑,
87', Caceres S. ↓, Villar M. ↑,
87', Larrosa E. ↓, Morales B. ↑,
88', Dure L. 🟨,
90+2', Siles P. 🟨,
90+3', Obregon E. ↓, Martinez F. ↑,
90+5', Bacchia R. 🟨,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 4 and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Montevideo City won 5.

Montevideo City is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Cerro has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Cerro may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Montevideo City is the team to beat.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Montevideo City won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 13:4. (average 1.6:0.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Montevideo City won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:1. (average 1.3:0.3).

Last Results with these Odds

Montevideo City Torque - the odds 1.72 are the expected chance of winning is 54%, but this team recently wins 11% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Montevideo City Torque
Uruguayan Primera Division
12.10.25	Montevideo City Torque - Montevideo Wanderers	2:2 ✺
03.10.25	Montevideo City Torque - Miramar Misiones	3:0 ✺
28.09.25	Danubio - Montevideo City Torque	2:0 ✺
20.09.25	Montevideo City Torque - Cerro Largo	1:0 ✺
14.09.25	Juventud de Las Piedras - Montevideo City Torque	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 TWLWW
- CA Cerro
Uruguayan Primera Division
11.10.25	Cerro - Defensor Sporting	1:0 ✺
05.10.25	Progreso - Cerro	2:0 ✺
26.09.25	Montevideo Wanderers - Cerro	0:1 ✺
21.09.25	Cerro - Miramar Misiones	1:0 ✺
14.09.25	Danubio - Cerro	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.3 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
20.04.25	Cerro - Montevideo City Torque	1:2
18.11.23	Montevideo City Torque - Cerro	1:0
16.04.23	Cerro - Montevideo City Torque	0:2
31.01.21	Cerro - Montevideo City Torque	1:3
22.11.20	Montevideo City Torque - Cerro	3:0
07.03.20	Montevideo City Torque - Cerro	1:1
21.10.18	Montevideo City Torque - Cerro	0:0

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