Match Info

Date: 31 August 2022, Wednesday

Location: Stade de la Mosson (Montpellier)

Referee: Dechepy B. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


France	Amazon Prime Video
Serbia	Arena Sport
World	beIN Sports Connect


	Montpellier		Ajaccio

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.2	3.4	Watch
	2.2	3.1	3.5
	2.15	3.15	3.65
	2.2	3.15	3.45
	2.29	3.23	3.63
	2.15	3.2	3.6	Watch
	2.21	3.22	3.48	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.2 ↓ (2.26)	3.18 ↓ (3.38)	3.53 ↑ (3.17)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Montpellier
43.2%

Draw
29.9%

Ajaccio
26.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42%

28.1%

29.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.2%

28%

29.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Montpellier has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

Ajaccio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Montpellier than the current prediction. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ajaccio than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71.4%	19%	9.5%

Montpellier - Ajaccio Predictions

Users Predictions: 63 users predict this event. Montpellier will win (votes: 45 - 71.4%). Ajaccio will win (votes: 6 - 9.5%). It will Tie (votes: 12 - 19%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Montpellier: 60.2% – 82.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Montpellier has the most likely position - 11 (6.91%), has project points - 47, has currently - 6, has a chance of relegated (21%), has a very small chance of qualify for ucl (4%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Ajaccio has the most likely position - 20 (16.11%), has project points - 38, has currently - 1, has a chance of relegated (48%), has a very small chance of qualify for ucl (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has quality 54, importance 40, match rating 47. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Montpellier won 2.

Recent matches Montpellier is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Ajaccio is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Ajaccio could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Montpellier will have a mini benefit in this match.

There will not play in Montpellier: Bertaud D. (Knee Injury) Delaye S. (Injury) Mavididi S. (Muscle Injury) Mendes P. (Injury) Savanier T. (Red Card)

There will not play in Ajaccio: Barreto M. (Injury)

Last 6 head-to-head matches Montpellier won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 8-4.

Including matches at home between the teams Montpellier won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 5-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Montpellier HSC
French Ligue 1
28.08.22	Brest - Montpellier	0:7 ✺
21.08.22	Montpellier - Auxerre	1:2 ✺
13.08.22	Paris Saint-Germain - Montpellier	5:2 ✺
07.08.22	Montpellier - Troyes	3:2 ✺
Club Friendly
30.07.22	Crystal Palace - Montpellier	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 WLLWL
- AC Ajaccio
French Ligue 1
26.08.22	Ajaccio - Lille	1:3 ✺
21.08.22	Rennes - Ajaccio	2:1 ✺
14.08.22	Ajaccio - Lens	0:0 ✺
05.08.22	Lyon - Ajaccio	2:1 ✺
Club Friendly
30.07.22	Lorient - Ajaccio	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 LLTLT

Latest Head to Head

French Coupe de la Ligue
28.10.14	Montpellier - Ajaccio	0:1
French Ligue 1
22.02.14	Montpellier - Ajaccio	2:0
29.09.13	Ajaccio - Montpellier	1:1
Club Friendly
27.07.13	Ajaccio - Montpellier	0:1
French Ligue 1
27.04.13	Ajaccio - Montpellier	2:1
08.12.12	Montpellier - Ajaccio	3:0

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