Match Info

FRANCE: Ligue 1 - Round 5

Date: 22 September 2024, Sunday

Location: Stade de la Mosson (Montpellier)

Referee: Ben El Hadj Salem H. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, TOD
Austria	DAZN
Belgium	DAZN 1
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 6, Moja TV
Canada	beIN Connect
China	QQ Sports
Croatia	Arena Sport 7, MAXtv To Go
Czech-republic	Voyo
France	Canal+ Live 3, DAZN 3, DAZN France
Germany	DAZN 1 Deutsch
Japan	DAZN Japan
Montenegro	Arena Sport 3
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Russia	Okko Sport
South-korea	Coupang Play
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Turkey	beIN Connect
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 6
United-kingdom	Ligue 1 Pass
Usa	beIN Connect, FuboTV
World	Disney+, Fanatiz


	Montpellier		Auxerre

	1	X	2
	2.3	3.4	3.1	Watch
	2.3	3.5	2.95
	2.35	3.6	2.88
	2.35	3.6	3.09
	2.35	3.53	3.07	Watch
	2.3	3.5	3
	2.39	3.67	3.09	Watch
	2.3	3.45	3.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.33 ↑ (2.19)	3.53 ↓ (3.56)	3.04 ↓ (3.27)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Network on TV: beIN SPORTS 5

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Current Win Probability

Montpellier
41.2%

Draw
27.2%

Auxerre
31.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.8%

26.9%

29.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.6%

27.4%

28.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Montpellier has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

Auxerre has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Montpellier than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Auxerre than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
39%	24.4%	36.6%

Montpellier - Auxerre Predictions

Users Predictions: 39 users predict this event. Montpellier will win (votes: 15 - 38.5%). Auxerre will win (votes: 15 - 38.5%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 23.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Montpellier: 23.2% – 53.8%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Bertaud D. (G) 77. Sacko F. 27. Omeragic B. 5. Sagnan M. 21. Mincarelli L. 19. Nzingoula R. 22. Fayad K. 7. Nordin A. 11. Savanier T. (C) 39. Issoufou Y. 8. Adams A.	16. Leon D. (G) 20. Diomande S. 4. Jubal (C) 3. Osho G. 23. Hoever K. 42. Owusu E. 27. Danois K. 92. Akpa C. 25. Traore H. J. 19. Aye F. 17. Sinayoko L.
Substitutes
15. Bares G. 44. Chennahi T. 70. Coulibaly T. 45. Dzodic S. 10. Khazri W. 4. Kouyate K. 40. Lecomte B. (G) 29. Tchato E. 20. Toure B.	9. Bair T. 40. De Percin T. (G) 18. Diousse A. 26. Joly P. 11. Maddy E. 45. Onaiwu A. 5. Pellenard T. 10. Perrin G. 97. Raveloson R.
Coaches
Der Zakarian M.	Pelissier C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
18', 0 - 1, Traore H. J. ⚽,
27', Issoufou Y. ↓, Coulibaly T. ↑,
33', Nzingoula R. 🟨,
44', Jubal ↓, Raveloson R. ↑,
2nd Half (3 - 1)
46', Mincarelli L. ↓, Tchato E. ↑,
48', Owusu E. 🟨,
58', Sinayoko L. 🟨,
61', Diomande S. 🟨,
64', Traore H. J. ↓, Onaiwu A. ↑,
65', Aye F. ↓, Perrin G. ↑,
65', 1 - 1, Adams A. ⚽, Savanier T. (A),
69', Omeragic B. 🟨,
70', Perrin G. 🟨,
71', 2 - 1, Sagnan M. ⚽, Sacko F. (A),
72', Fayad K. ↓, Toure B. ↑,
72', Omeragic B. ↓, Kouyate K. ↑,
72', 2 - 2, Onaiwu A. ⚽, Perrin G. (A),
75', 3 - 2, Adams A. ⚽, Savanier T. (A),
76', Adams A. 🟨,
82', Hoever K. ↓, Bair T. ↑,
82', Danois K. ↓, Joly P. ↑,
88', Savanier T. ↓, Khazri W. ↑,

Preview

Montpellier has a series of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Auxerre is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Montpellier could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

There will not play in Montpellier: Chotard J. (Muscle Injury) Gueguin A. (Knee Injury) Jullien C. (Knee Injury) Kouyate K. (Injury) Mincarelli L. (Knee Injury) Sainte-Luce T. (Injury) Sylla I. (Injury)

There will not play in Auxerre: Agouzoul S. (Injury) Coulibaly L. (Knee Injury) Mensah G. (Injury) N'Gatta A. L. (Injury)

There are questionable in Montpellier: Omeragic B. (Injury)

There are questionable in Auxerre: Joly P. (Injury) Raveloson R. (Injury)

Last 3 head-to-head matches Montpellier won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 5-3.

Including matches at home between the teams Montpellier won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Montpellier HSC
French Ligue 1
15.09.24	Rennes - Montpellier	3:0 ✺
31.08.24	Montpellier - Nantes	1:3 ✺
23.08.24	Paris Saint-Germain - Montpellier	6:0 ✺
18.08.24	Montpellier - Strasbourg	1:1 ✺
Club Friendly
10.08.24	Mainz - Montpellier	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLTL
- AJ Auxerre
French Ligue 1
14.09.24	Auxerre - Monaco	0:3 ✺
01.09.24	Le Havre - Auxerre	3:1 ✺
25.08.24	Nantes - Auxerre	2:0 ✺
18.08.24	Auxerre - Nice	2:1 ✺
Club Friendly
03.08.24	Auxerre - Red Star	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 LLLWW

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
29.01.23	Auxerre - Montpellier	0:2
21.08.22	Montpellier - Auxerre	1:2
20.05.12	Auxerre - Montpellier	1:2

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