Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 32

Date: 4 May 2025, Sunday

Location: Stade Francis-Le Blé (Brest)

Referee: Lissorgue R. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 2, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 2, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 2, TOD
Austria	DAZN
Belgium	DAZN 1
Canada	beIN Connect
Chile	Disney+
China	QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	Arena Sport 9, MAXtv To Go
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
France	DAZN 2, DAZN France
Germany	DAZN 1 Deutsch
India	GXR World
Japan	DAZN Japan
Mexico	Caliente TV App, Caliente TV
Netherlands	Viaplay
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Russia	Okko Sport
South-korea	Coupang Play
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Turkey	beIN Connect
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 5
United-kingdom	Ligue 1 Pass
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+


	Brest		Montpellier

	1	X	2
	1.33	5.5	7.5	Watch
	1.34	5.5	8.25
	1.34	5.4	8.3
	1.37	5.59	8.77
	1.31	5.71	8.94	Watch
	1.33	5	8
	1.4	5.38	7.69	Watch
	1.34	5.4	8.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.35 ↓ (1.38)	5.44 ↑ (5.06)	8.22 ↑ (7.81)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Brest
70.9%

Draw
17.5%

Montpellier
11.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

69%

18.8%

12.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

72.7%

17.8%

11.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Brest has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

Montpellier has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Brest than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

The ML Model estimate for Montpellier aligns with the current prediction.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
69%	10.3%	20.7%

Brest - Montpellier Predictions

Users Predictions: 28 users predict this event. Brest will win (votes: 20 - 71.4%). Montpellier will win (votes: 5 - 17.9%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 10.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Brest: 54.7% – 88.1%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3 - over (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

1X2, 1st Half - Brest (1.75) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Brest will win (6 of 8 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Brest (votes: 7 - 77.8%). Montpellier (votes: 2 - 22.2%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
40. Bizot M. (G) 7. Lala K. 5. Chardonnet B. (C) 3. Ndiaye A. 22. Haidara M. 45. Camara M. 20. Lees-Melou P. 26. Pereira Lage M. 9. Doumbia K. 10. Del Castillo R. 19. Ajorque L.	40. Lecomte B. (C) 29. Tchato E. 47. Mouanga Y. 27. Omeragic B. 21. Mincarelli L. 17. Sainte-Luce T. 70. Coulibaly T. 19. Nzingoula R. 12. Ferri J. 22. Fayad K. 41. Ndiaye J.
Substitutes
14. Balde M. 30. Coudert G. (G) 21. Faivre R. 6. Fernandes E. 2. Locko B. 8. Magnetti H. 28. Martin J. 17. Sima A. 12. Zogbe L.	16. Bertaud D. (G) 44. Chennahi T. 13. Chotard J. 10. Khazri W. 4. Kouyate K. 2. Meite A. 49. Ndollo Bille W. 77. Sacko F. 11. Savanier T.
Coaches
Roy E.	Camara Z.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
13', Nzingoula R. 🟨,
15', 1 - 0, Del Castillo R. ⚽, Camara M. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Tchato E. ↓, Ndollo Bille W. ↑,
56', Ferri J. ↓, Chotard J. ↑,
66', Coulibaly T. ↓, Khazri W. ↑,
66', Ndiaye J. ↓, Savanier T. ↑,
68', Doumbia K. ↓, Magnetti H. ↑,
68', Del Castillo R. ↓, Sima A. ↑,
73', Lees-Melou P. 🟨,
75', Mouanga Y. ↓, Meite A. ↑,
81', Ajorque L. ↓, Balde M. ↑,
87', Camara M. ↓, Martin J. ↑,
89', Fayad K. 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 9 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Ligue 2).

Montpellier is Relegated to Ligue 2

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Brest won 2.

Brest has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Montpellier has been on a rough run of results (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Brest may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Brest is the undisputed favorite.

There will not play in Brest: Amavi J. (Injury) Bourgault J. (Foot Injury) Coulibaly S. (Injury) Le Cardinal J. (Hamstring Injury) Salah I. (Foot Injury)

There will not play in Montpellier: Gueguin A. (Ribs Injury) Jullien C. (Knee Injury) Maamma O. (International duty) Pays N. (Foot Injury) Sylla I. (Calf Injury)

There are questionable in Brest: Locko B. (Achilles Tendon Injury)

There are questionable in Montpellier: Delort A. (Illness) Issoufou Y. (Injury) Sagnan M. (Thigh Injury) Tchato E. (Thigh Injury)

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Brest won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 12:30. (average 0.9:2.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Brest won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 5:15. (average 0.8:2.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stade Brestois 29
French Ligue 1
27.04.25	Olympique Marseille - Brest	4:1 ✺
20.04.25	Brest - Lens	1:3 ✺
13.04.25	Saint-Étienne - Brest	3:3 ✺
05.04.25	Brest - Monaco	2:1 ✺
30.03.25	Toulouse - Brest	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16 LLTWW
- Montpellier HSC
French Ligue 1
27.04.25	Montpellier - Reims	0:0 ✺
19.04.25	Olympique Marseille - Montpellier	5:1 ✺
13.04.25	Angers - Montpellier	2:0 ✺
09.04.25	Montpellier - Saint-Étienne	0:2 ✺
06.04.25	Montpellier - Le Havre	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.6 TLLLL

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
10.11.24	Montpellier - Brest	3:1
14.01.24	Brest - Montpellier	2:0
26.11.23	Montpellier - Brest	1:3
12.02.23	Montpellier - Brest	3:0
28.08.22	Brest - Montpellier	0:7
03.04.22	Montpellier - Brest	1:2
11.12.21	Brest - Montpellier	0:4

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