Match Info

FRANCE: Ligue 1 - Round 18

Date: 17 January 2025, Friday

Location: Stade de la Mosson (Montpellier)

Referee: Brisard J. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 4
Argentina	ESPN 3
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD
Austria	DAZN
Belgium	DAZN 1
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1, Moja TV
Bulgaria	Diema Sport, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports
China	QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	ESPN 3
Croatia	Arena Sport 3
Cyprus	Cablenet Sports 3, Cablenet Sports 3
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 3
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay, V Sport+
France	DAZN 1, DAZN France
Georgia	Setanta Sport 3
Germany	DAZN 1 Deutsch
Greece	SKAI
India	GXR World
Israel	5 PLUS Israel
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kazakhstan	Setanta Sports
Mexico	Caliente TV App
Montenegro	Arena Premium 1
Netherlands	Viaplay
North-central-america	ESPN Norte
North-macedonia	Arena Premium 1
Norway	Viaplay
Poland	Eleven Sports 3
Portugal	Sport TV2
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 1
Slovakia	Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 4
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	beIN Sports
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 4
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 2
United-kingdom	Ligue 1 Pass
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports
Venezuela	Inter
World	Disney+


	Montpellier		Monaco

	1	X	2
				Watch
				Watch
				Watch
	4.75	4.2	1.62
				Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.75 ↑ (4.33)	4.2 ↑ (4.14)	1.62 ↓ (1.73)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

Watch this match and French Ligue 1 with fuboTV (for US customers)

Network on TV: beIN SPORTS

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Current Win Probability

Montpellier
19.8%

Draw
22.3%

Monaco
57.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22%

23%

55%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.8%

23.2%

55.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Montpellier has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

Monaco has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Montpellier than the current prediction. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Monaco than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
10.8%	12.3%	76.9%

Montpellier - Monaco Predictions

Users Predictions: 63 users predict this event. Montpellier will win (votes: 6 - 9.5%). Monaco will win (votes: 49 - 77.8%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 12.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Monaco: 67.5% – 88.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
40. Lecomte B. (C) 47. Mouanga Y. 29. Tchato E. 27. Omeragic B. 5. Sagnan M. 3. Sylla I. 11. Savanier T. 13. Chotard J. 19. Nzingoula R. 10. Khazri W. 9. Al-Tamari M.	1. Majecki R. (G) 4. Teze J. 5. Kehrer T. (C) 22. Salisu M. 20. Ouattara K. 88. Magassa S. 15. Camara L. 11. Akliouche M. 18. Minamino T. 7. Ben Seghir E. 14. Biereth M.
Substitutes
8. Adams A. 16. Bertaud D. (G) 44. Chennahi T. 45. Dzodic S. 22. Fayad K. 39. Issoufou Y. 14. Maamma O. 7. Nordin A. 17. Sainte-Luce T.	42. Bouabre S. 12. Caio Henrique 36. Embolo B. 10. Golovin A. 16. Kohn P. (G) 8. Matazo E. 13. Mawissa Elebi C. 41. Michal L. 2. Vanderson
Coaches
Gasset J.	Hutter A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
32', 0 - 1, Kehrer T. ⚽, Camara L. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
55', 1 - 1, Al-Tamari M. ⚽,
56', Magassa S. 🟨,
61', Ouattara K. ↓, Caio Henrique ↑,
61', Teze J. ↓, Vanderson ↑,
61', Akliouche M. ↓, Michal L. ↑,
64', Khazri W. ↓, Nordin A. ↑,
64', Nzingoula R. ↓, Fayad K. ↑,
64', Sylla I. ↓, Sainte-Luce T. ↑,
67', Vanderson 🟨,
77', Ben Seghir E. ↓, Embolo B. ↑,
81', Mouanga Y. 🟨,
82', Michal L. ↓, Golovin A. ↑,
82', 2 - 1, Al-Tamari M. ⚽, Nordin A. (A),
89', Mouanga Y. ↓, Dzodic S. ↑,
90+1', Al-Tamari M. ↓, Maamma O. ↑,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Ligue 2 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Montpellier won 1.

Montpellier has a series of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Monaco is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Montpellier could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Monaco have a series of guest games.

In this match Monaco is a favorite.

There will not play in Montpellier: Ferri J. (Red Card) Jullien C. (Knee Injury) Kouyate K. (Red Card) Maksimovic N. (Thigh Injury) Mincarelli L. (Injury) Toure B. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Monaco: Balogun F. (Shoulder Injury) Golovin A. (Illness) Ilenikhena G. (Groin Injury) Mawissa Elebi C. (Hamstring Injury)

There are questionable in Monaco: Zakaria D. (Illness)

Last 20 head-to-head matches Montpellier won 4 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 12 matches and goals 25:38 (average 1.3:1.9).

Including matches at home between the teams Montpellier won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 13:17 (average 1.4:1.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Montpellier HSC
French Ligue 1
12.01.25	Montpellier - Angers	1:3 ✺
04.01.25	Lyon - Montpellier	1:0 ✺
Coupe De France
21.12.24	Le Puy - Montpellier	4:0 ✺
French Ligue 1
15.12.24	Montpellier - Nice	2:2 ✺
08.12.24	Lens - Montpellier	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LLLTL
- AS Monaco
Coupe De France
14.01.25	Reims - Monaco	2:1 penalties ✺
French Ligue 1
10.01.25	Nantes - Monaco	2:2 ✺
French Super Cup
05.01.25	Paris Saint-Germain - Monaco	1:0 ✺
Coupe De France
22.12.24	L`Union Saint Jean - Monaco	1:4 ✺
French Ligue 1
18.12.24	Monaco - Paris Saint-Germain	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1 LTLWL

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
28.09.24	Monaco - Montpellier	2:1
12.05.24	Montpellier - Monaco	0:2
03.12.23	Monaco - Montpellier	2:0
30.04.23	Monaco - Montpellier	0:4
09.10.22	Montpellier - Monaco	0:2
23.01.22	Montpellier - Monaco	3:2
24.10.21	Monaco - Montpellier	3:1

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