Match Info

FRANCE: Ligue 1 - Round 16

Date: 4 January 2025, Saturday

Location: Parc Olympique Lyonnais (Lyon)

Referee: Stinat J. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 2, TV5 Monde Africa, TV5 Monde Maghreb-Orient
Albania	K-Sport 1
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD, TV5 Monde Asia
Austria	DAZN 2, DAZN, Sky Go Austria
Belgium	DAZN 1, VOOsport World 1
Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Caze TV, Claro TV+, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	Diema Sport, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, TV5
China	QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cablenet Sports 2, Cablenet Sports 2
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 2, Voyo
Europe	Setanta Sports 2 Baltic
France	DAZN 1, DAZN France, TV5 Monde Europe
Georgia	Setanta Sports 2
Germany	DAZN 1 Deutsch, DAZN 2 Bar Deutsch, DAZN 2
India	GXR World
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kazakhstan	Setanta Sports 2
Mexico	Caliente TV App, Caliente TV
Poland	Eleven Sports 2, Eleven Sports 4
Portugal	Sport TV2
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
Slovakia	Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 4
South-america	TV5 Monde Amerique Latine
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	beIN Sports
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 4
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 4, MEGOGO Sport
United-kingdom	beIN Sports MENA English 1, Ligue 1 Pass
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, TV5 Monde
World	Disney+, Fanatiz, Setanta Sports 2 Eurasia


	Lyon		Montpellier

	1	X	2
	1.36	5.5	7.5	Watch
	1.32	6	8
	1.32	5.9	7.9	Watch
	1.38	5.64	7.86
	1.37	5.85	7.6	Watch
	1.35	5.5	7
	1.39	5.59	7.63	Watch
	1.32	5.9	7.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.35 ↓ (1.37)	5.74 ↑ (5.36)	7.67 ↓ (7.67)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

Watch this match and French Ligue 1 with fuboTV (for US customers)

Network on TV: TV5MONDE

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Current Win Probability

Lyon
70.8%

Draw
16.7%

Montpellier
12.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

69.8%

17.8%

12.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

71.9%

17.3%

12%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lyon has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

Montpellier has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lyon than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Montpellier than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88.5%	7.3%	4.2%

Lyon - Montpellier Predictions

Users Predictions: Lyon will win (85 of 96 users predict this - 88.54%).
Confidence interval (95%): 82.17% – 94.91%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Lucas Perri (G) 98. Maitland-Niles A. 22. Clinton Mata 55. Caleta-Car D. 16. Abner Vinicius 7. Veretout J. 31. Matic N. 17. Benrahma S. 37. Nuamah E. 10. Lacazette A. (C) 11. Fofana M.	40. Lecomte B. (G) 52. Maksimovic N. 27. Omeragic B. 5. Sagnan M. 29. Tchato E. 12. Ferri J. (C) 19. Nzingoula R. 3. Sylla I. 11. Savanier T. 8. Adams A. 9. Al-Tamari M.
Substitutes
18. Cherki R. 40. Descamps R. (G) 20. Kumbedi S. 69. Mikautadze G. 29. Molebe E. 19. Niakhate M. 27. Omari W. 15. Tessmann T. 8. Tolisso C.	16. Bertaud D. (G) 44. Chennahi T. 45. Dzodic S. 22. Fayad K. 38. Gueguin A. 39. Issoufou Y. 10. Khazri W. 47. Mouanga Y. 17. Sainte-Luce T.
Coaches
Sage P.	Gasset J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
50', Sagnan M. 🟨,
64', Maksimovic N. 🟨,
64', Adams A. ↓, Khazri W. ↑,
65', Maksimovic N. ↓, Fayad K. ↑,
65', Benrahma S. ↓, Cherki R. ↑,
65', Nuamah E. ↓, Tolisso C. ↑,
65', Maitland-Niles A. ↓, Niakhate M. ↑,
66', Veretout J. 🟨,
75', Savanier T. ↓, Dzodic S. ↑,
75', Matic N. ↓, Tessmann T. ↑,
76', Veretout J. ↓, Mikautadze G. ↑,
87', Sylla I. ↓, Sainte-Luce T. ↑,
87', Nzingoula R. ↓, Issoufou Y. ↑,
90+1', 1 - 0, Fayad K. (Own goal),

Preview

This match will be played by one of a leader and an outsider (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: ) and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Ligue 2).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Lyon won 4.

Lyon is in real good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Montpellier is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

In this match Lyon is the unquestionable favorite.

Our prediction for today's Lyon to win the game is with odds 1.33.

Last 20 head-to-head matches Lyon won 11 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 40:29 (average 2:1.5).

Including matches at home between the teams Lyon won 6 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 26:16 (average 2.6:1.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Olympique Lyon
Coupe De France
21.12.24	Feignies Aulnoye - Lyon	1:2 ✺
French Ligue 1
15.12.24	Paris Saint-Germain - Lyon	3:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
12.12.24	Lyon - Eintracht Frankfurt	3:2 ✺
French Ligue 1
07.12.24	Angers - Lyon	0:3 ✺
01.12.24	Lyon - Nice	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 WLWWW
- Montpellier HSC
Coupe De France
21.12.24	Le Puy - Montpellier	4:0 ✺
French Ligue 1
15.12.24	Montpellier - Nice	2:2 ✺
08.12.24	Lens - Montpellier	2:0 ✺
01.12.24	Montpellier - Lille	2:2 ✺
23.11.24	Saint-Étienne - Montpellier	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 LTLTL

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
11.02.24	Montpellier - Lyon	1:2
19.08.23	Lyon - Montpellier	1:4
07.05.23	Lyon - Montpellier	5:4
22.10.22	Montpellier - Lyon	1:2
23.04.22	Lyon - Montpellier	5:2
28.11.21	Montpellier - Lyon	0:1
13.02.21	Lyon - Montpellier	1:2

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