Match Info

FRANCE: Ligue 1 - Round 14

Date: 8 December 2024, Sunday

Location: Stade Bollaert-Delelis (Lens)

Referee: Vernice M. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 2
Albania	K-Sport 1
Argentina	Disney+
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD
Austria	DAZN
Belgium	DAZN 1
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 5, Moja TV
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports
Chile	Disney+
China	QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	Arena Sport 7, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cablenet Sports 3, Cablenet Sports 3
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 2
France	DAZN 1, DAZN France
Germany	DAZN 1 Deutsch
India	GXR World
Japan	DAZN Japan
Peru	Disney+
Poland	Eleven Sports 3
Portugal	Sport TV5
Russia	Okko Sport
Slovakia	Voyo
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	beIN Sports
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Turkey	beIN Connect
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 3
United-kingdom	Ligue 1 Pass
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports
Venezuela	Disney+
World	Disney+, Fanatiz


	Lens		Montpellier

	1	X	2
	1.38	5	7.5	Watch
	1.35	5.25	8.25
	1.37	4.95	8.3	Watch
	1.39	5.09	8.62
	1.41	4.97	8.1	Watch
	1.35	5	8
	1.4	5.44	8.65	Watch
	1.37	4.95	8.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.38 ↑ (1.34)	5.08 ↓ (5.35)	8.22 ↓ (8.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

Watch this match and French Ligue 1 with fuboTV (for US customers)

Network on TV: beIN SPORTS

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Current Win Probability

Lens
69.5%

Draw
18.8%

Montpellier
11.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

70.8%

17.8%

11.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.5%

11.9%

17%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lens has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

Montpellier has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lens than the current prediction. (-22%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Lens that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Montpellier than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Montpellier could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88%	4%	8%

Lens - Montpellier Predictions

Users Predictions: Lens will win (21 of 24 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 74.27% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Samba B. (C) 29. Frankowski P. 4. Danso K. 25. Khusanov A. 14. Medina F. 28. Thomasson A. 18. Diouf A. 21. Zaroury A. 11. Fulgini A. 36. Labeau Lascary R. 8. Nzola M.	40. Lecomte B. (G) 29. Tchato E. 5. Sagnan M. 52. Maksimovic N. 27. Omeragic B. 3. Sylla I. 11. Savanier T. 12. Ferri J. 13. Chotard J. 9. Al-Tamari M. 7. Nordin A.
Substitutes
23. El Aynaoui N. 24. Gradit J. 13. Jhoanner Chavez 16. Koffi H. (G) 15. Ojediran H. 10. Pereira da Costa D. 22. Said W. 20. Sarr M. 7. Sotoca F.	8. Adams A. 15. Bares G. 16. Bertaud D. (G) 44. Chennahi T. 10. Khazri W. 47. Mouanga Y. 41. Ndiaye J. 77. Sacko F. 17. Sainte-Luce T.
Coaches
Still W.	Gasset J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
39', 1 - 0, Labeau Lascary R. ⚽, Nzola M. (A),
43', Savanier T. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Nordin A. ↓, Khazri W. ↑,
60', Diouf A. ↓, El Aynaoui N. ↑,
61', Nzola M. ↓, Said W. ↑,
61', Labeau Lascary R. ↓, Sotoca F. ↑,
71', Sagnan M. 🟨,
72', Maksimovic N. ↓, Adams A. ↑,
76', Fulgini A. ↓, Pereira da Costa D. ↑,
80', Sotoca F. 🟨,
81', Medina F. ↓, Jhoanner Chavez ↑,
84', Chotard J. ↓, Bares G. ↑,
85', Ferri J. ↓, Ndiaye J. ↑,
90', Samba B. 🟨,
90+2', 2 - 0, Lecomte B. (Own goal),
90+5', Tchato E. 🟨,

Preview

Team outsider and a mid-table team will meet during this match (ranked 7 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Ligue 2).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Lens won 2.

Recent matches Lens is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Montpellier is in unsatisfactory shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Montpellier could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Lens is certain favorite.

There will not play in Lens: Aguilar R. (Shoulder Injury) Bane S. (Muscle Injury) Cabot J. (Knee Injury) Satriano M. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Montpellier: Adams A. (Thigh Injury) Coulibaly T. (Red Card) Fayad K. (Injury) Issoufou Y. (Thigh Injury) Jullien C. (Knee Injury) Mincarelli L. (Injury) Nzingoula R. (Yellow Cards) Toure B. (Muscle Injury)

Last 11 head-to-head matches Lens won 4 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 15:13 (average 1.4:1.2).

Including matches at home between the teams Lens won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 7:6 (average 1.4:1.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- RC Lens
French Ligue 1
29.11.24	Reims - Lens	0:2 ✺
23.11.24	Lens - Olympique Marseille	1:3 ✺
09.11.24	Lens - Nantes	3:2 ✺
02.11.24	Paris Saint-Germain - Lens	1:0 ✺
26.10.24	Lens - Lille	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 WLWLL
- Montpellier HSC
French Ligue 1
01.12.24	Montpellier - Lille	2:2 ✺
23.11.24	Saint-Étienne - Montpellier	1:0 ✺
10.11.24	Montpellier - Brest	3:1 ✺
03.11.24	Le Havre - Montpellier	1:0 ✺
27.10.24	Montpellier - Toulouse	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 TLWLL

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
19.05.24	Lens - Montpellier	2:2
08.12.23	Montpellier - Lens	0:0
25.02.23	Montpellier - Lens	1:1
Club Friendly
10.12.22	Montpellier - Lens	1:2
French Ligue 1
15.10.22	Lens - Montpellier	1:0
20.04.22	Lens - Montpellier	2:0
17.10.21	Montpellier - Lens	1:0

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