Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE ONE - ROUND 29

Date: 28 January 2023, Saturday

Location: The Mazuma Stadium (Morecambe)

Referee: Finnie W. (Eng)


	Morecambe		Bristol Rovers

	1	X	2
	3.2	3.4	2.25
	3.1	3.4	2.2
	3.25	3.25	2.3
	3	3.3	2.27
	3.22	3.48	2.3
	3.1	3.2	2.3
	3.13	3.46	2.23	Watch
	3	3.3	2.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.13 ↑ (2.91)	3.35 ↑ (3.33)	2.27 ↓ (2.33)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Morecambe
30.2%

Draw
28.2%

Bristol Rovers
41.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32%

28%

40%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33%

27.2%

38.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Morecambe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

Bristol Rovers has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Morecambe than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bristol Rovers than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	40%	20%

Morecambe - Bristol Rovers Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Morecambe will win (votes: 4 - 40%). Bristol Rovers will win (votes: 2 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 40%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Morecambe: 9.6% – 70.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Super game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 21 in the zone Relegation ~ League Two and 11).

Morecambe has the most likely position - 21 (16.59%), has project points - 45, has currently - 24, has a chance of relegated (50%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (<1%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Bristol Rovers has the most likely position - 15 (10.39%), has project points - 59, has currently - 37, has a very small chance of relegated (2%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (2%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has small quality 17, small importance 28, small match rating 22. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Morecambe won 1.

Both teams are now playing unstable.

Bristol Rovers could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Bristol Rovers will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 7 head-to-head matches Morecambe won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 12-11.

Including matches at home between the teams Morecambe won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 6-6.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Morecambe
English League One
24.01.23	Ipswich Town - Morecambe	4:0 ✺
07.01.23	Morecambe - Cheltenham Town	2:1 ✺
01.01.23	Morecambe - Burton Albion	5:0 ✺
29.12.22	Morecambe - Accrington Stanley	2:0 ✺
26.12.22	Port Vale - Morecambe	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.8 LWWWL
- Bristol Rovers
English League One
14.01.23	Accrington Stanley - Bristol Rovers	2:0 ✺
English EFL Trophy
10.01.23	Bristol Rovers - Plymouth Argyle	0:2 ✺
English League One
07.01.23	Cambridge United - Bristol Rovers	1:2 ✺
01.01.23	Bristol Rovers - Cheltenham Town	2:1 ✺
29.12.22	Bristol Rovers - Exeter City	3:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 LLWWL

Latest Head to Head

English League One
03.09.22	Bristol Rovers - Morecambe	2:2
English League Two
20.02.16	Bristol Rovers - Morecambe	2:1
03.10.15	Morecambe - Bristol Rovers	3:4
29.03.14	Bristol Rovers - Morecambe	1:0
14.12.13	Morecambe - Bristol Rovers	2:1
23.02.13	Morecambe - Bristol Rovers	1:1
01.09.12	Bristol Rovers - Morecambe	0:3

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