The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Morecambe 29.5%
Draw 27.2%
Burton Albion 43.3%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
35.3%
27.3%
37.4%
Our Initial ML Estimation
36.4%
26.5%
36.3%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Morecambe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Morecambe's form might have worsened.
Burton Albion has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.9%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Burton Albion's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Morecambe than the current prediction. (+6.9%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Morecambe, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Burton Albion than the current prediction. (-7%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Burton Albion, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
20%
16.7%
63.3%
Morecambe - Burton Albion Predictions
Users Predictions:
30 users predict this event. Morecambe will win (votes: 6 - 20%). Burton will win (votes: 19 - 63.3%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 16.7%). Confidence interval (95%) for Burton: 46.1% – 80.5%.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Preview
In a match only outsiders will meet (ranked 24 in the zone Relegation ~ League Two and 20).
Morecambe has the most likely position - 24 (26.87%), has project points - 41, has currently - 18, has a good chance of relegated (75%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (<1%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).
Burton has the most likely position - 22 (13.48%), has project points - 47, has currently - 22, has a chance of relegated (46%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (<1%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).
This event has small quality15, importance46, small match rating30. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)
Last 5 head-to-head matches Morecambe won 1.
Morecambe is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).
Recent matches Burton is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).
Burton will have a small advantage in this match.
Last 10 head-to-head matches Morecambe won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 12-14.
Including matches at home between the teams Morecambe won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 4-3.