Match Info

League Two - Round 44

Date: 21 April 2025, Monday

Location: The Mazuma Stadium (Morecambe)

Referee: Speedie B. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Sky Sports+


	Morecambe		Salford City

	1	X	2
	3.5	3.5	2	Watch
	3.3	3.4	2.1
	3.5	3.6	2	Watch
	3.58	3.65	2.02
	3.49	3.47	2.04	Watch
	3.3	3.25	2.15
	3.53	3.54	2.02	Watch
	3.5	3.6	2
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.46 ↑ (3)	3.5 ↑ (3.32)	2.04 ↓ (2.32)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Morecambe
27.1%

Draw
26.8%

Salford City
46%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.3%

28.3%

40.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.1%

27.2%

42.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Morecambe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

Salford City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Salford City's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Morecambe than the current prediction. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Salford City than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	10%	70%

Morecambe - Salford City Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Morecambe will win (votes: 2 - 20%). Salford will win (votes: 7 - 70%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 10%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Salford: 41.6% – 98.4%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Salford (1.26) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

DNB - Salford (1.44) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Salford City will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Morecambe (votes: 1 - 11.1%). Salford (votes: 8 - 88.9%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Burgoyne H. (G) 5. Taylor M. 24. Songo'o Y. (C) 6. Stott J. 3. Lewis A. 4. White T. 18. Tollitt B. 28. Jones C. 17. Lewis P. 16. Dallas A. 10. Angol L.	13. Young M. (G) 19. Mnoga H. 3. Berkoe K. 29. Garbutt L. 33. Austerfield J. 4. Ashley O. 6. Fornah T. 31. Adelakun H. 14. Woodburn B. 9. Stockton C. 10. N'Mai K.
Substitutes
20. Cooke C. 29. Fairclough A. 9. Hope H. 12. Schofield R. (G) 11. Slew J. 31. Snowball N. 32. Whaite B.	2. Edwards T. 1. Jones J. (G) 25. Longelo-Mbule R. 8. Lund M. 11. Taylor J. 28. Warrington L. 7. Watson R.
Coaches
Adams D.	Robinson K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
3', 0 - 1, Ashley O. ⚽,
41', 0 - 2, Stockton C. ⚽, Woodburn B. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Mnoga H. ↓, Longelo-Mbule R. ↑,
52', 1 - 2, Songo'o Y. ⚽,
59', Lewis A. 🟨,
66', Dallas A. ↓, Slew J. ↑,
66', Songo'o Y. 🟨,
67', White T. 🟨,
76', Lewis P. ↓, Hope H. ↑,
83', Tollitt B. ↓, Fairclough A. ↑,
83', Angol L. ↓, Whaite B. ↑,
86', 1 - 3, N'Mai K. ⚽, Adelakun H. (A),
89', Adelakun H. ↓, Edwards T. ↑,
90', Woodburn B. ↓, Lund M. ↑,
90+3', Fairclough A. 🟨,
90+4', Ashley O. ↓, Watson R. ↑,
90+4', Stockton C. ↓, Taylor J. ↑,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 24 in the zone Relegation ~ National League and 10).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Morecambe won 2.

Two teams are playing changeable.

Morecambe could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Salford will have a poor advantage in this game.

There will not play in Morecambe: Edwards G. (Injury) Hendrie L. (Inactive) Macadam H. (Inactive) Moore S. (Injury) Ray G. (Lacking Match Fitness) Tutonda D. (Red Card)

There will not play in Salford: Chesters D. (Knee Injury) Kouassi K. (Injury) McAleny C. (Injury) Negru S. (Inactive) Okoronkwo F. (Injury)

There are questionable in Morecambe: Millen R. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Salford: Shephard L. (Injury)

Last 7 head-to-head matches Morecambe won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 7:11 (average 1:1.6).

Including matches at home between the teams Morecambe won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 5:3 (average 1.7:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Morecambe - the odds 3 are the expected chance of winning is 31.28%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Salford City - the odds 2.32 are the expected chance of winning is 40.45%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Morecambe
English League Two
18.04.25	Bromley - Morecambe	1:0 ✺
12.04.25	Morecambe - Carlisle United	0:2 ✺
05.04.25	Grimsby Town - Morecambe	3:1 ✺
01.04.25	Morecambe - Cheltenham Town	2:0 ✺
29.03.25	Morecambe - Swindon Town	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 LLLWW
- Salford City
English League Two
18.04.25	Salford City - Accrington Stanley	1:2 ✺
15.04.25	Salford City - Doncaster Rovers	1:1 ✺
11.04.25	Notts County - Salford City	1:3 ✺
05.04.25	Salford City - Gillingham	2:2 ✺
01.04.25	Barrow - Salford City	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.3 LTWTT

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
29.12.24	Salford City - Morecambe	1:0
17.03.24	Salford City - Morecambe	3:1
02.09.23	Morecambe - Salford City	1:0
23.02.21	Morecambe - Salford City	2:1
24.11.20	Salford City - Morecambe	2:1
English EFL Trophy
29.09.20	Salford City - Morecambe	2:0
English League Two
07.09.19	Morecambe - Salford City	2:2

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