Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 8

Date: 4 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Estádio da Madeira (Funchal)

Referee: Malheiro H. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Hungary	Sport 2
Kuwait	KTV Sport
Norway	VG+
Portugal	Sport TV2
Serbia	Arena Sport 6
South-america	Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Play Latinoamerica
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 6, MEGOGO Ukraine
Usa	Fanatiz
Venezuela	Inter
World	Triller TV+


	Nacional		Moreirense

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.1	3.4	Watch
	2.25	3.1	3.25
	2.22	3.05	3.35
	2.29	3.19	3.62
	4.46	3.76	1.74	Watch
				Watch
	2.27	3.2	3.21	Watch
	2.31	3.2	3.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.57 ↑ (2.3)	3.23 ↑ (3.21)	3.12 ↓ (3.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nacional
38.2%

Draw
30.4%

Moreirense
31.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.9%

29.3%

29.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.5%

30.4%

28.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nacional has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

Moreirense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nacional than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Moreirense than the current prediction. (-2.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
36.4%	18.2%	45.5%

Nacional - Moreirense Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Nacional will win (votes: 4 - 36.4%). Moreirense will win (votes: 5 - 45.5%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 18.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Moreirense: 16.1% – 74.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Nacional (votes: 1 - 50%). Moreirense (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Moreirense (1.66) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Nacional (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Moreirense (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kaique Pereira (G) 16. Nunez A. 34. Leo Santos 38. Ze Vitor 5. Jose Gomes 15. Labidi C. 6. Matheus Dias 28. Liziero 99. Pablo Ruan 9. Ramirez J. (C) 11. Paulinho Boia	22. Caio (G) 76. Pinto D. 26. Maracas 44. Marcelo (C) 27. Kiko 11. Alanzinho 8. Stjepanovic M. 15. Sousa V. 2. Travassos 99. Yan Maranhao 10. Kiko Bondoso
Substitutes
19. Joao L. 50. Medeiros de Freitas K. V. (G) 26. Silva J. 22. Soares F. 18. Sousa A. 4. Ulisses 24. Vallier L. 30. Watts 7. Witi	25. Assis A. 66. Batista G. 20. Bernardo 30. Gower J. 19. Jorquera Romero J. 78. Landerson 17. Martinez A. 16. Mika (G) 7. Teguia C.
Coaches
Margarido T.	Costa V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
4', 0 - 1, Sousa V. ⚽, Pinto D. (A),
15', Maracas 🟨,
20', Costa V. 🟨,
21', 1 - 1, Ramirez J. (Pen),
30', Yan Maranhao 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
50', Ze Vitor 🟨,
56', 1 - 2, Kiko Bondoso ⚽, Yan Maranhao (A),
59', 2 - 2, Leo Santos ⚽, Liziero (A),
62', Sousa V. 🟥,
70', Kiko Bondoso ↓, Batista G. ↑,
70', Alanzinho ↓, Bernardo ↑,
70', Yan Maranhao ↓, Landerson ↑,
72', Stjepanovic M. 🟨,
76', Labidi C. ↓, Soares F. ↑,
81', Pablo Ruan ↓, Witi ↑,
84', 3 - 2, Ramirez J. (Pen),
85', Travassos ↓, Teguia C. ↑,
90+1', Liziero ↓, Sousa A. ↑,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 14 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nacional won 1.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Nacional might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Nacional: Baeza M. (Knee Injury) Deivison (Inactive) Fernandes I. (Inactive) Lucas Franca (Inactive)

There will not play in Moreirense: Ofori L. (Inactive) Rodri (Inactive)

There are questionable in Nacional: Ramirez J. (Injury)

There are questionable in Moreirense: Michel (Inactive)

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Nacional won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 13 matches, and goals 14:32. (average 0.7:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Nacional won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 8 matches, and goals 4:14. (average 0.4:1.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atletico Nacional
Liga Portugal
28.09.25	Braga - Nacional	0:1 ✺
20.09.25	Nacional - Arouca	1:2 ✺
13.09.25	Porto - Nacional	1:0 ✺
30.08.25	Casa Pia - Nacional	0:2 ✺
23.08.25	Nacional - Sporting Lisbon	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23.3 WLLWL
- Moreirense FC
Liga Portugal
27.09.25	Moreirense - Casa Pia	2:1 ✺
22.09.25	Sporting Lisbon - Moreirense	3:0 ✺
13.09.25	Moreirense - Rio Ave	3:1 ✺
29.08.25	Gil Vicente - Moreirense	2:0 ✺
23.08.25	Moreirense - Vitoria Guimarães	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.3 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
27.04.25	Moreirense - Nacional	1:1
14.12.24	Nacional - Moreirense	1:0
Portuguese Liga 2
18.03.23	Nacional - Moreirense	0:2
09.10.22	Moreirense - Nacional	3:1
Liga Portugal
06.05.21	Moreirense - Nacional	2:2
17.01.21	Nacional - Moreirense	0:1
28.01.19	Moreirense - Nacional	2:1

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