Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 34

Date: 16 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas (Moreira de Conegos)

Referee: Guelho S. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	TVI, V+ TVI


	Moreirense		AVS

	1	X	2
	2.32	3.4	2.75
	2.42	3.25	2.82
	2.33	3.48	3.18
	2.16	3.45	3.34	Watch
	2.4	3.25	2.75
	2.59	3.43	2.83	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.37 ↑ (1.89)	3.38 ↓ (3.62)	2.95 ↓ (3.97)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Moreirense
39.9%

Draw
28%

AVS
32.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

26.1%

23.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.7%

27%

23%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Moreirense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Moreirense's form might have worsened.

AVS has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting AVS's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Moreirense than the current prediction. (+11.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Moreirense, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for AVS than the current prediction. (-9.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for AVS, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
64.7%	0%	35.3%

Moreirense - AVS Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Moreirense will win (votes: 11 - 64.7%). AVS will win (votes: 6 - 35.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Moreirense: 42% – 87.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Moreirense (votes: 1 - 50%). AVS (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - no (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Moreirense (1.55) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.25 - AVS (1.96) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - AVS (1.55) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Moreirense (votes: 2 - 40%). AVS (votes: 3 - 60%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Mika (C) 70. Fabiano 4. Kevyn Monteiro 66. Batista G. 27. Kiko 23. John N. 21. Rodri 2. Travassos 30. Gower J. 10. Kiko Bondoso 99. Yan Maranhao	93. Simao (G) 97. Mateus Pivo 42. Devenish C. (C) 3. Paulo Vitor 12. Rivas D. 23. Mendonca G. 27. Algobia A. 11. Akinsola T. 70. Roni 21. Neiva G. 20. Duarte D.
Substitutes
11. Alanzinho 25. Assis A. 13. Ferreira A. (G) 78. Landerson 17. Martinez A. 71. Santos L. 9. Semedo L. 8. Stjepanovic M. 7. Teguia C.	1. Adriel (G) 19. Galletto T. 25. Green A. 24. Kiki 14. Perea O. 26. Ponck 33. Santos A. 7. Tomane 88. Trigueira (G)
Coaches
Costa V.	Henriques J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
5', Rodri 🟨,
35', Mateus Pivo 🟨,
39', Roni 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
61', Fabiano ↓, Santos L. ↑,
62', Kiko ↓, Martinez A. ↑,
62', Gower J. ↓, Alanzinho ↑,
72', Yan Maranhao 🟨,
73', Algobia A. ↓, Galletto T. ↑,
73', Duarte D. ↓, Tomane ↑,
75', Kiko Bondoso ↓, Teguia C. ↑,
75', Yan Maranhao ↓, Semedo L. ↑,
82', Simao ↓, Trigueira ↑,
83', Neiva G. ↓, Green A. ↑,
83', Mendonca G. 🟨,
85', Roni ↓, Kiki ↑,

Preview

AVS is Relegated to Liga Portugal 2

Moreirense has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

AVS is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Moreirense: Maracas (Red Card) Sousa V. (Leg Injury)

There will not play in AVS: Baroan A. (Injury)

There are questionable in Moreirense: Michel (Muscle Injury) Pinto D. (Shoulder Injury)

There are questionable in AVS: Kiki (Inactive) Mateus Pivo (Injury) Nene (Inactive)

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Moreirense won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:1. (average 1.5:0.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Moreirense won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1. (average 0.5:0.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Moreirense	8	2	2	4	8:15	-7	8

Last Results with these Odds

AVS - the odds 3.97 are the expected chance of winning is 23.83%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Moreirense FC
Liga Portugal
11.05.26	Tondela - Moreirense	2:0 ✺
02.05.26	Moreirense - Estrela da Amadora	3:2 ✺
25.04.26	Benfica - Moreirense	4:1 ✺
20.04.26	Moreirense - Estoril Praia	1:0 ✺
10.04.26	Famalicão - Moreirense	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.4 LWLWT
- AVS Futebol SAD
Liga Portugal
10.05.26	AVS - Porto	3:1 ✺
02.05.26	Nacional - AVS	1:2 ✺
26.04.26	AVS - Sporting Lisbon	1:1 ✺
17.04.26	Rio Ave - AVS	2:2 ✺
11.04.26	AVS - Vitoria Guimarães	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 54.8 WWTTL

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
03.01.26	AVS - Moreirense	0:2
17.05.25	AVS - Moreirense	0:3
04.01.25	Moreirense - AVS	1:1

Moreirense - AVS: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide