Match Info

NPL Premier Division - Round 39

Date: 12 April 2025, Saturday


	Morpeth Town		Basford United

	1	X	2
	1.6	3.9	4.1
	1.63	4.1	4.1
	1.77	4.01	3.98
	1.67	4	3.75
	1.79	3.66	3.74
	1.63	4.1	4.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.68 ↓ (1.79)	3.96 ↑ (3.8)	3.96 ↑ (3.66)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Morpeth Town
54.1%

Draw
23%

Basford United
23%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51%

24%

25%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.1%

23.1%

24%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Morpeth Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

Basford United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Morpeth Town than the current prediction. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Basford United than the current prediction. (+1%)

Morpeth Town - Basford United Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
43', 1 - 0, Hodgson S. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
58', 1 - 1, Palmer T. ⚽,
63', Williamson J. 🟥,
75', 2 - 1, Henderson J. ⚽,
76', 2 - 2, Gratton J. ⚽,
84', Stewart E. 🟥,

Preview

This match will be played by one of a leader and an outsider (ranked 7 and 20 in the zone Relegation).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Morpeth won 2.

Recent matches Morpeth is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Basford is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

In this match Morpeth is a favorite.

Last 7 head-to-head matches Morpeth won 2 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 9:12 (average 1.3:1.7).

Including matches at home between the teams Morpeth won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 5:4 (average 1.7:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Morpeth Town
English NPL Premier Division
05.04.25	Matlock Town - Morpeth Town	1:2 ✺
29.03.25	Morpeth Town - Leek Town	1:1 ✺
22.03.25	Lancaster City - Morpeth Town	0:0 ✺
15.03.25	Morpeth Town - Macclesfield Town	0:4 ✺
08.03.25	Leek Town - Morpeth Town	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 WTTLW
- Basford United
English NPL Premier Division
05.04.25	Basford United - Ashton United	1:2 ✺
29.03.25	Prescot Cables - Basford United	1:0 ✺
22.03.25	Basford United - Workington	2:1 ✺
15.03.25	Whitby Town - Basford United	1:0 ✺
08.03.25	Basford United - Lancaster City	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 LLWLL

Latest Head to Head

English NPL Premier Division
17.08.24	Basford United - Morpeth Town	4:0
16.12.23	Morpeth Town - Basford United	2:2
12.08.23	Basford United - Morpeth Town	2:2
29.01.22	Basford United - Morpeth Town	1:2
30.11.21	Morpeth Town - Basford United	2:1
25.01.20	Basford United - Morpeth Town	1:0
12.10.19	Morpeth Town - Basford United	1:1

Morpeth Town - Basford United: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide