Match Info

NPL Premier Division - Round 29

Date: 31 January 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished


	Morpeth Town		Guiseley

	1	X	2
	2.62	3.1	2.45
	2.67	3.33	2.44
	2.6	3.41	2.55	Watch
	2.6	3	2.4
	2.86	3.33	2.39
	2.66	3.33	2.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.67 ↑ (2.58)	3.25 ↓ (3.31)	2.44 ↓ (2.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Morpeth Town
34.3%

Draw
28.2%

Guiseley
37.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

36%

28%

36%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.7%

27.8%

36.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Morpeth Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

Guiseley has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Morpeth Town than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Guiseley than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

Morpeth Town - Guiseley Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
13', 0 - 1, Emmett J. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 18 and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Morpeth won 1.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Morpeth won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 9:15. (average 1.3:2.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Morpeth won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 4:4. (average 1.3:1.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Guiseley	13	9	1	3	27:12	15	28

Last Results with these Odds

Morpeth Town - the odds 2.58 are the expected chance of winning is 35.98%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Morpeth Town
English NPL Premier Division
24.01.26	Morpeth Town - United of Manchester	1:0 ✺
17.01.26	Gainsborough Trinity - Morpeth Town	1:0 ✺
10.01.26	Ilkeston - Morpeth Town	3:1 ✺
01.01.26	Morpeth Town - Stockton Town	0:2 ✺
26.12.25	Whitby Town - Morpeth Town	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 WLLLW
- Guiseley
English NPL Premier Division
24.01.26	Guiseley - Stockton Town	1:1 ✺
17.01.26	Warrington Rylands - Guiseley	1:0 ✺
01.01.26	Stocksbridge Park Steels - Guiseley	1:3 ✺
26.12.25	Guiseley - Gainsborough Trinity	3:2 ✺
20.12.25	Hebburn Town - Guiseley	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 TLWWL

Latest Head to Head

English NPL Premier Division
20.09.25	Guiseley - Morpeth Town	3:1
28.01.25	Morpeth Town - Guiseley	2:0
17.09.24	Guiseley - Morpeth Town	3:3
17.02.24	Guiseley - Morpeth Town	4:1
26.09.23	Morpeth Town - Guiseley	1:1
03.12.22	Guiseley - Morpeth Town	1:0
16.08.22	Morpeth Town - Guiseley	1:3

Morpeth Town - Guiseley