Match Info

NPL Premier Division - Round 28

Date: 24 January 2026, Saturday


	Morpeth Town		United of Manchester

	1	X	2
	2.88	3.15	2.25
	3.04	3.53	2.12
	3.02	3.58	2.18	Watch
	2.9	3.2	2.1
	3.05	3.34	2.11
	3	3.4	2.16
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.98 ↓ (3.02)	3.37 ↑ (3.36)	2.15 ↓ (2.23)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Morpeth Town
30.6%

Draw
27.1%

United of Manchester
42.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.7%

27.6%

41.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.5%

26.5%

43.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Morpeth Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

United of Manchester has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Morpeth Town than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for United of Manchester than the current prediction. (+1%)

Morpeth Town - United of Manchester Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
8', 1 - 0, Henderson A. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ NPL Premier Division (Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Morpeth won 2.

Morpeth has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

United of Manchester's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Morpeth may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Morpeth has had a series of away games.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Morpeth won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 7 matches, and goals 15:23. (average 1.4:2.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Morpeth won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 5:6. (average 1:1.2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
22	FC United	10	1	2	7	12:20	-8	5

Last Results with these Odds

Morpeth Town - the odds 3.02 are the expected chance of winning is 30.74%, but this team recently wins 42% of matches with these odds.

United of Manchester - the odds 2.23 are the expected chance of winning is 41.63%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Morpeth Town
English NPL Premier Division
17.01.26	Gainsborough Trinity - Morpeth Town	1:0 ✺
10.01.26	Ilkeston - Morpeth Town	3:1 ✺
01.01.26	Morpeth Town - Stockton Town	0:2 ✺
26.12.25	Whitby Town - Morpeth Town	1:2 ✺
13.12.25	Hebburn Town - Morpeth Town	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LLLWL
- FC United of Manchester
English NPL Premier Division
17.01.26	United of Manchester - Warrington Town	2:2 ✺
13.01.26	United of Manchester - Workington	2:2 ✺
10.01.26	Leek Town - United of Manchester	0:1 ✺
01.01.26	United of Manchester - Ashton United	0:1 ✺
27.12.25	Hednesford Town - United of Manchester	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 TTWLT

Latest Head to Head

English NPL Premier Division
16.09.25	United of Manchester - Morpeth Town	0:0
04.01.25	United of Manchester - Morpeth Town	4:1
10.08.24	Morpeth Town - United of Manchester	0:1
24.02.24	Morpeth Town - United of Manchester	3:0
14.10.23	United of Manchester - Morpeth Town	2:5
English FA Trophy
07.10.23	Morpeth Town - United of Manchester	1:4
English NPL Premier Division
01.04.23	Morpeth Town - United of Manchester	0:1

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