Match Info

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C - Round 21

Date: 8 March 2026, Sunday


	Mortágua		Fatima

	1	X	2
	1.92	3.05	3.85
	2.02	2.84	3.92
	2	2.95	3.94	Watch
	2.05	2.7	3.7
	1.94	2.85	4.26
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.99 ↑ (1.85)	2.88 ↓ (3.1)	3.93 ↓ (3.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mortágua
45.6%

Draw
31.4%

Fatima
23%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.4%

28.9%

22.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.6%

28.2%

22.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mortágua has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

Fatima has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mortágua than the current prediction. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fatima than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

Mortágua - Fatima Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
9', 0 - 1, ⚽,
33', (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 4 and 9).

Mortágua is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Fatima has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Mortágua is a strong favorite.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Mortágua won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:1. (average 1.7:0.3).

Including home match between the teams, Mortágua won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Mortagua	4	3	1	0	9:4	5	10
9	Fatima	4	1	1	2	6:5	1	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mortágua FC
Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
01.03.26	Samora Correia - Mortágua	1:0 ✺
22.02.26	Mortágua - Peniche	2:1 ✺
15.02.26	Oliveira Hospital - Mortágua	0:1 ✺
24.01.26	SC Lusitânia - Mortágua	0:1 ✺
17.01.26	Mortágua - União da Serra	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.5 LWWWW
- CD Fatima
Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
01.03.26	Fatima - Lajense	1:1 ✺
22.02.26	Fatima - Samora Correia	2:2 ✺
14.02.26	Peniche - Fatima	1:1 ✺
25.01.26	Marinhense - Fatima	2:1 ✺
18.01.26	Fatima - SC Lusitânia	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 TTTLW

Latest Head to Head

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
02.11.25	Fatima - Mortágua	1:3
13.04.25	Mortágua - Fatima	2:0
05.01.25	Fatima - Mortágua	0:0

Mortágua - Fatima: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide