Match Info

HONDURAS: LIGA NACIONAL - CLAUSURA - ROUND 9

Date: 25 February 2023, Saturday

Location: Estadio Nacional Jose de la Paz Herrera Ucles (Tegucigalpa)


	Motagua		Honduras Progreso

	1	X	2
	1.58	3.4	5
	1.27	4.46	10.89
	1.29	4.95	9.2
	1.31	4.6	8.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.36 ↓ (1.63)	4.35 ↑ (3.28)	8.32 ↑ (5.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 8.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Motagua
67.7%

Draw
21.2%

Honduras Progreso
11.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.6%

27.6%

16.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.8%

17.8%

26.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Motagua has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Motagua's performance.

Honduras Progreso has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Honduras Progreso might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Motagua than the current prediction. (-31.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Motagua that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Honduras Progreso than the current prediction. (+15%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Honduras Progreso could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.7%	0%	14.3%

Motagua - Honduras Progreso Predictions

Users Predictions: Motagua will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.78% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

This match a meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will be held (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Nacional (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 10).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Motagua won 4.

Recent matches Motagua is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Honduras Progreso has a line of defeats in latest matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

In this match Motagua is indisputable favorite.

Last 38 head-to-head matches Motagua won 28 matches, drawn 6 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 87-34.

Including matches at home between the teams Motagua won 16 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 53-14.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Motagua
Honduras Liga Nacional
19.02.23	CD Marathón - Motagua	1:1 ✺
15.02.23	Real Sociedad Tocoa - Motagua	0:0 ✺
11.02.23	Motagua - Vida	2:1 ✺
04.02.23	Olimpia Tegucigalpa - Motagua	3:1 ✺
01.02.23	Motagua - Olancho	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 TTWLL
- CD Honduras Progreso
Honduras Liga Nacional
19.02.23	Honduras Progreso - Victoria La Ceiba	1:1 ✺
16.02.23	CD Marathón - Honduras Progreso	1:0 ✺
12.02.23	Olancho - Honduras Progreso	2:0 ✺
05.02.23	Honduras Progreso - Real España	1:3 ✺
01.02.23	Real Sociedad Tocoa - Honduras Progreso	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 TLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Honduras Liga Nacional
18.09.22	Honduras Progreso - Motagua	0:1
31.07.22	Motagua - Honduras Progreso	4:0
20.04.22	Motagua - Honduras Progreso	3:2
19.01.22	Honduras Progreso - Motagua	2:1
09.11.21	Motagua - Honduras Progreso	3:2
04.09.21	Honduras Progreso - Motagua	0:3
11.04.21	Motagua - Honduras Progreso	5:2

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