Match Info

Premier League - Round 14

Date: 18 December 2025, Thursday


	Muranga Seal		Police FC

	1	X	2
	4.45	2.92	1.85
	4.24	2.99	1.86
	4.51	2.97	1.87	Watch
	4.2	2.75	1.91
	4.1	2.9	1.95
	4.25	3	1.84
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.29 ↑ (4.25)	2.92 ↑ (2.84)	1.88 ↓ (1.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Muranga Seal
21%

Draw
30.9%

Police FC
48%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21.1%

31.6%

47.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.6%

30.8%

48.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Muranga Seal has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

Police FC has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Muranga Seal than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Police FC than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
10%	20%	70%

Muranga Seal - Police FC Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Police will win (votes: 7 - 77.8%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Police: 50.6% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Police (votes: 4 - 57.1%). Tie (votes: 3 - 42.9%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
15', 1 - 0, Waithira J. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 16 in the zone Relegation ~ Super League and 3).

Recent performances by Muranga have been up and down (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Police is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Muranga may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Police is the team to beat.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Muranga won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 1:6. (average 0.3:2).

Including home match between the teams, Muranga won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Muranga Seal
Kenyan Premier League
12.12.25	Nairobi United - Muranga Seal	1:1 ✺
30.11.25	Muranga Seal - Kariobangi Sharks	0:0 ✺
23.11.25	Muranga Seal - Shabana	1:1 ✺
16.11.25	AFC Leopards - Muranga Seal	0:0 ✺
09.11.25	Kakamega Homeboyz - Muranga Seal	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.3 TTTTT
- Kenya Police FC
Kenyan Premier League
13.12.25	Police FC - AFC Leopards	0:0 ✺
06.12.25	Kariobangi Sharks - Police FC	0:1 ✺
30.11.25	Police FC - Shabana	0:1 ✺
26.11.25	Bidco United - Police FC	2:3 ✺
22.11.25	Police FC - Mathare United	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 TWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Kenyan Premier League
15.03.25	Police FC - Muranga Seal	3:1
19.01.25	Muranga Seal - Police FC	0:1
03.12.23	Police FC - Muranga Seal	2:0

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