Match Info

Copa Sudamericana - Group Stage - Round 3

Date: 23 April 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Banco Guayaquil (Quito)

Referee: Menendez A. (Per)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV Sports, DSports 1
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, TOD
Bolivia	Tigo Sports 3
Brazil	Disney+
Canada	beIN Connect
Chile	DirecTV Sports
Ecuador	DirecTV Sports
Indonesia	Mola TV
Italy	Como TV
Paraguay	Tigo Sports
Peru	DirecTV Sports
Russia	Okko Sport
South-america	DGO Latin America
Uruguay	DirecTV Sports, DSports 1
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz, Fubo Sports Network
Venezuela	DirecTV Sports, DSports 1
World	Disney+


	Mushuc Runa		Unión Santa Fe

	1	X	2
	2.35	3.1	3.4	Watch
	2.3	3.1	3.1
	2.35	3	3.2	Watch
	2.36	3.15	3.4
	2.32	3.04	3.45
	2.25	3	3.2	Watch
	2.33	3.07	3.37	Watch
	2.35	3	3.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.33 ↑ (1.86)	3.06 ↓ (3.26)	3.29 ↓ (4.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mushuc Runa
40.5%

Draw
30.8%

Unión Santa Fe
28.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.3%

28.7%

21%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.6%

27.4%

20.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mushuc Runa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Mushuc Runa's form might have worsened.

Unión Santa Fe has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Unión Santa Fe's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mushuc Runa than the current prediction. (+12.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Mushuc Runa, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Unión Santa Fe than the current prediction. (-8.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Unión Santa Fe, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	42.9%	57.1%

Mushuc Runa - Unión Santa Fe Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Unión will win (votes: 4 - 57.1%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 42.9%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Unión (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.25 - Unión (1.91) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - Mushuc Runa (2.24) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Unión (2.32) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Mushuc Runa (votes: 1 - 25%). Unión (votes: 3 - 75%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Formento R. (G) 4. Haquin L. 29. Quintero D. 2. Bentaberry B. 19. Gracia A. 17. Penilla C. 14. Tapiero S. 32. Orejuela C. 41. Caicedo E. 88. Arce L. 18. Bryan Angulo	25. Cardozo T. (G) 3. Corvalan C. (C) 18. Gamba L. 16. Martinez M. 14. Pitton B. 7. Fragapane F. 24. Profini R. 35. Vargas L. 28. Pitton M. 34. Pardo F. 31. Estigarribia M.
Substitutes
22. Alonso M. 5. Davila E. 10. Delgado B. 37. Mancilla Quinones J. L. 31. Mina G. 11. Miranda B. 3. Parrales J. 26. Peralta K. 9. Rigoleto M. 27. Simisterra R. 1. Tapia C. (G) 8. Zambrano A.	11. Del Blanco M. 29. Diaz F. (G) 9. Domina J. 13. Fascendini V. 22. Gerometta F. 43. Giaccone E. 26. Luduena J. 20. Palacios J. 32. Paz N. 36. Pumpido F. 1. Tagliamonte M. (G) 10. Verde L.
Coaches
Almeida E.	Gonzalez K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
3', 1 - 0, Orejuela C. ⚽, Bryan Angulo (A),
43', Martinez M. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Bryan Angulo ↓, Simisterra R. ↑,
52', 2 - 0, Caicedo E. ⚽, Orejuela C. (A),
55', Bentaberry B. 🟥,
59', Caicedo E. ↓, Peralta K. ↑,
65', Gracia A. ↓, Mina G. ↑,
68', Pitton M. ↓, Domina J. ↑,
68', Pitton B. ↓, Palacios J. ↑,
74', Gamba L. ↓, Diaz F. ↑,
74', Fragapane F. ↓, Verde L. ↑,
76', Palacios J. 🟨,
77', Orejuela C. ↓, Alonso M. ↑,
77', Tapiero S. ↓, Davila E. ↑,
80', Vargas L. ↓, Del Blanco M. ↑,
80', Peralta K. 🟨,
90+1', 3 - 0, Penilla C. ⚽, Simisterra R. (A),

Preview

Mushuc Runa is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Unión is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Mushuc Runa will have a poor advantage in this game.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mushuc Runa
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
19.04.25	Libertad Loja - Mushuc Runa	2:1 ✺
14.04.25	Mushuc Runa - LDU Quito	1:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
09.04.25	Cruzeiro - Mushuc Runa	1:2 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
06.04.25	Técnico Universitario - Mushuc Runa	1:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
03.04.25	Mushuc Runa - Palestino	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 41 LWWTW
- Unión Santa Fe
Argentinian Liga Profesional
18.04.25	Unión Santa Fe - Newells Old Boys	1:1 ✺
14.04.25	Defensa y Justicia - Unión Santa Fe	0:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
09.04.25	Palestino - Unión Santa Fe	2:0 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
06.04.25	Unión Santa Fe - Central Córdoba	1:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
01.04.25	Unión Santa Fe - Cruzeiro	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.8 TTLWW

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