Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 8

Date: 18 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Romano (Mérida)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+


	Mérida AD		Arenteiro

	1	X	2
	1.73	3.4	4.33
	1.9	3.25	3.9
	1.8	3.45	4.55
	1.26	5.22	11.15	Watch
	1.91	3.24	4.03
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.72 ↓ (2.05)	3.71 ↑ (3.2)	5.59 ↑ (3.49)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mérida AD
56.5%

Draw
26.2%

Arenteiro
17.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.9%

28.7%

26.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.1%

28.8%

26.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mérida AD has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Mérida AD's performance.

Arenteiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Arenteiro might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mérida AD than the current prediction. (-11.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Mérida AD that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arenteiro than the current prediction. (+8.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Arenteiro could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Mérida AD - Arenteiro Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Csenterics A. (G) 15. Martinez G. 23. Verges E. 5. Dominguez J. 3. Lancho J. 21. Beneit R. 8. Solar M. 10. Doncel C. 11. Areso J. 7. Chiqui 9. Garcia A.	13. Garcia D. (G) 22. Sanchez J. 5. Perez G. 15. Moreno D. 3. Lohr L. 6. Val B. 8. Gonzalez D. 25. Bastida A. 10. De Camargo W. 12. Ochoa M. 24. Richarte R.
Substitutes
14. Artola J. 13. Cacharron P. (G) 16. Capitas M. 18. Dibrani B. 26. Gil A. (G) 12. Gomes R. 17. Herranz Corral V. 20. Jacobo R. 4. Pareja L. 24. Pereira R. 22. Rivas M.	19. Alpha M. 1. Alvin (G) 44. Gimenez F. 16. Guerrero J. 30. Iglesias F. 21. Llacer L. 2. Moya P. 23. Romera D. 14. Safrai

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
1', 1 - 0, Garcia A. ⚽,
4', Lancho J. 🟨,
28', Gonzalez D. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
53', 2 - 0, Garcia A. ⚽,
62', 2 - 1, Moreno D. ⚽,
66', 3 - 1, Garcia A. ⚽,
70', 🟨,
76', 🟨,
76', 🟥,
89', 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation and 9).

Mérida AD has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Arenteiro has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Mérida AD is the team to beat.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mérida AD
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
11.10.25	Unionistas de Salamanca - Mérida AD	2:0 ✺
05.10.25	Mérida AD - Arenas Club de Getxo	3:0 ✺
28.09.25	Zamora - Mérida AD	3:0 ✺
20.09.25	Cacereño - Mérida AD	2:1 ✺
13.09.25	Mérida AD - Celta de Vigo B	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LWLLL
- CD Arenteiro
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
12.10.25	Arenteiro - CD Guadalajara	0:0 ✺
05.10.25	Arenteiro - Barakaldo	1:1 ✺
27.09.25	Celta de Vigo B - Arenteiro	2:1 ✺
20.09.25	Arenteiro - Zamora	0:0 ✺
14.09.25	Cacereño - Arenteiro	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 TTLTW

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